Checking in on Aetherdrift Prices

It’s been a little under three months since the release of Aetherdrift, Magic’s first Standard-legal set of 2025, and already it feels like the set has been left behind. 

After a modest launch met with lukewarm reception, Aetherdrift has been thoroughly eclipsed by Tarkir: Dragonstorm, whose explosive debut smashed sales expectations and reminded everyone what it feels like when Wizards actually nails the blend of flavor, power, and product design. 

So, what now for Aetherdrift, a set already receding in the rearview mirror? Let’s take a look.

The State of the Market

Starting off with sealed product, Collector Booster Boxes have collapsed nearly 33% from their release prices. Play Booster Boxes haven’t fared much better, down roughly 30% in that same timeframe. This kind of price depreciation this quickly isn’t just unusual—it’s alarming. 

Traditionally, sealed product might dip slightly right after release as the presale hype wears off, but it typically trends upward over time, buoyed by scarcity, demand, and the occasional breakout card. That hasn’t happened here. Instead, the floor just dropped out, leaving sellers to undercut each other in the hopes of ridding themselves of bad product.

Some of this may be attributable to the broader market fatigue we’ve seen across Standard sets. Magic releases a whole lot of product really quickly, but that’s far from being a big enough issue to significantly devalue any one product. Rather, the severity of this price drop speaks to something more specific: a failure of Aetherdrift to deliver the excitement necessary to maintain a consumer base.

Moving to single cards, the picture doesn’t get much better. The two standout mythics from the set – Ketramose, the New Dawn and The Aetherspark – have both lost nearly half their value since release. That’s not entirely out of step with typical post-release depreciation, but what’s notable here is the absence of any breakout replacement. There’s no sleeper Commander star climbing the charts, nothing to galvanize product opening. Instead, there’s just a vacuum where that excitement should be.

The most stable card in the set right now? Stock Up, a competitively viable uncommon that's proving its worth in across formats. Don’t get me wrong, a Standard set maintaining a $10 dollar uncommon is a wild feat, but it isn’t exactly the kind of card that makes players rush to pick up an extra box. It’s not Ugin, Eye of the Storms; it’s much more like Hare Apparent. Cards like this are incidental bonuses, not the end-goal. No one’s opening Foundations boxes chasing Hare Apparent.

The result is a set with no big gravitational pull – nothing to draw eyes, wallets, or decklists toward it. That’s a dangerous place to be this early in a product's lifecycle.

The Exception: First-Place Foils

All that said, Aetherdrift isn’t a total bust across all categories. There’s one area where value has stubbornly clung on: the First-Place Foils.

These box-topper-style promos are guaranteed with each box – a uniformity in distribution that might’ve hampered prices in theory, but not in practice. Instead, the cards’ variable contents created a mini-lottery. Some were effectively bulk rares. Others? Chase mythics. And in rare cases, players pulled a First-Place Foil that also carried a Borderless treatment - a layering of premiums that’s driven serious price spikes.

Going back to Ketramose – a card that’s collapsed in value when measured using the base printing – we can see that it’s pushing $80 on the secondary market, a remarkable price point for a card from a set otherwise languishing in the $15 dollar range. Special printings normally come with special prices, but such a multiplier like Ketramose’s here is rare in a world where everything’s special.

These First-Place Foils have become something of a bright spot – though, ironically, one that doesn’t strictly depend on Aetherdrift’s playability or power level. In this case, it’s the packaging, not the product, that’s performing.

A Familiar Pattern: Karlov Comparisons

For those of us with long enough memories – and boxes of unsold bulk rares – the current story of Aetherdrift is starting to look a lot like another recent clunker: Murders at Karlov Manor. Like Aetherdrift, Karlov Manor was met with skepticism on release. Its flavor missed the mark with core audiences, its power level failed to excite established players, and its singles couldn’t hold up under the weight of initial supply. Box prices cratered.

But, as anyone who’s paid attention to Murders at Karlov Manor in recent months will tell you, the set eventually found some footing. A few cards gained traction (just look at the prices of the Surveil Lands, for example), Commander players fortified the prices of some hidden gems, and the sealed product, while not yet past release prices, stabilized enough to avoid the “clearance rack” fate of sets like Dragon's Maze. All of this to say, the dead set came back.

So, the question becomes: can Aetherdrift follow a similar path?

It’s possible – but it’s going to take some time, and likely some change in the zeitgeist of Magic players. As of right now, Aetherdrift doesn’t have a roster of well-loved cards in it just yet. It took a little while for players to discover the true utility of the Surveil Lands from Murders at Markov Manor, so I’m hopeful that something from Aetherdrift will eventually spark brewer interest, but it doesn’t quite seem as likely. The set is missing a ubiquitous powerhouse, and even the hyper-specific stars that it does have feel like they’re dwindling.

As for sealed product, it will inevitably benefit from the long-term forces of attrition. Players may be slower to open it up, but packs will undoubtedly continue getting cracked, and with each one the supply of Collector Booster Boxes will continue to shrink.

Final Thoughts

Aetherdrift is a set in search of a second chance. Its First-Place Foils are keeping some interest alive, but its core offerings aren’t delivering the kind of value that sustains long-term player demand. For now, it looks like attrition may be Aetherdrift’s best – and only – friend.

Further Reading:

Why Are First Place Foils So Expensive?

Card Prices to Watch in Aetherdrift

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