Why Are First Place Foils So Expensive?

In Magic’s newest Standard set, Aetherdrift, we saw the return of a long running (albeit never consistent) include for Booster Boxes – the Box Topper. Not a buy-a-box promo, but a randomized, sealed-in-the-box, guaranteed bonus that comes with every Booster Box, both Collector and Play. This time, however, a couple things stand out, and that’s leading to some wild price movements. So, what’s going on with Aetherdrift’s Box Toppers, and will it last?

A Brief History of Box Toppers

So, what exactly is a Box Topper? Well, as the name implies, these promotional cards are included within sealed Booster Boxes as a semi-randomized inclusion, often as a mini booster-pack. Ultimate Masters debuted this promotion, with the Double Masters Box Toppers also displaying the Extended Art treatment for the first time.

Since Ultimate Masters, Box Toppers have appeared in nine sets since, including Aetherdrift. Sometimes with unique specialty treatments, sometimes not, but always within sealed within the Booster Box – a point that matters significantly because of its ability to impact the market value of a Booster Box as it continues to age, unlike Buy-a-box promos which are separate from the sealed product and as such have no influence over their price trajectories.

What Are First Place Foils

So, now that we know about Box Toppers broadly, what are the First Place foils?

Sealed inside of each box of Aetherdrift is a mini-Booster Pack that contains two cards: one basic land, and one rare (or mythic) selected from across the full roster of Aetherdrift’s card pool. So, unlike previous Box Toppers, the range of what you can get here is much larger. No select pool of 40 premium cards like in Ultimate Masters; instead, the allure here is just the gold-foil treatment. 

Speaking of treatments, it’s important to point out that many First Place foils have two versions: a borderless version, and a regular version, increasing the rarity (and as such, desirability) for many of these cards.

Notably, however, these cards don’t pop up in individual Collector Booster Packs. This stands in stark contrast to some of Magic’s more recent iterations of Box Toppers – such as the Zendikar Rising Expeditions – which can be found elsewhere in Collector sealed product.  

The Market Dynamics

Despite being in circulation for a few weeks now, Aetherdrift’s First Place foils have been on an absolute tear through the market. Even some of the cheapest rares in the set are worth multiple dollars in their First Place foil version, with their borderless First Place counterparts being worth even more

Like most new things, however, the First Place foils have seen a price trajectory categorized by significant initial volatility, only to plateau with lower prices across the board (except in the rare cases of cards which have seen surprise success in tournament play, such as Ketramose, the New Dawn).

Despite this volatility, a secondary trend is picking up in the background: not only is the price floor on the First Place foils higher than initially anticipated, but so too is it beginning to tick ever so slightly upwards. What does this mean? Well folks, it looks like – particularly for some of the cheaper playables – we could be in for a rebound.

As I mentioned earlier with regards to the Zendikar Rising Expeditions, many of the more recent iterations of Box Toppers have been available elsewhere, at the very least in Collector Booster packs. By both expanding the randomness for what comes in any given Booster Box’s First Place foil slot (remember, we’re working with the full roster of rares here) as well as closing off alternate routes of supply, the demand for any particular First Place foil is significantly outcompeting its average supply, culminating in upwards price pressure.

Wrap Up

Fortunately, the availability of First Place foils in Play Booster Boxes (and, to a lesser extent, the Finish Line Bundle) means that more supply will continue to enter the market, providing gradual counterbalance pressure against the current momentum. That said, the demand for these cards is clear, and the supply for any one card is going to be slow to meaningfully change, so I fully expect these cards to hold a pretty premium in the near future.

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