The Path of Small Magic Sets
Taken all together, Magic’s miniature sets have had a rough go of things: Cards show up too frequently in boosters, players dislike the inability to draft them, and the prices tank as a result. All in all, no mini-set has yet been welcomed with open arms.
That said, we’ve seen plenty of variations in how Wizards of the Coast has attempted to respond to this problem, each attempt bringing with it some upsides and downsides.
So, what broader trends remain from these miniature sets, and how can we use them to look forward?
Route One: Stay Small
First off, the two true-to-form miniature sets:
While these products contained the usual number of rares per pack, they cut down severely on commons, leaving players with a poor aftertaste when purchasing them due to the feeling of being cheated out of something. Sure, it may have just been bulk commons that were missing from the set, but that lack of physical product was enough to greatly sour consumer’s opinion of the sets.
This broad market distaste led each set to collapse in price shortly after hitting shelves. In the case of Aftermath, this was rapid and dramatic, as the set was roundly rejected by both players and collectors alike. Things took a little bit longer with Assassin’s Creed, and the drop wasn’t as substantial – thanks in large part to the premium price tag that came with the Universes Beyond branding – but the bottom eventually fell out, and the market abandoned it.
Look at the market now, however, and it’s a different story. Collector Boosters of Aftermath are up 81% this year, and Assassin’s Creed Collector Boosters are up 70%. Those are absurd numbers, outpacing the gains of many – if not most – other Collector Boosters in the market. The takeaway? The market may hate small sets initially, but with their collapse (and some patience) comes an excellent opportunity to reap rewards as prices correct themselves.
Route Two: Rework
The second example of how a miniature set has been handled is to condense it and then force it on to another normal-sized set as a bonus slot, something that Wizard’s has only done once. For this case, we need to look at
On the whole, Outlaws at Thunder Junction wasn’t terribly well received. Like
That said, it didn’t crash nearly as fast or as hard as either of our two previous case studies, instead falling only slightly after release.
As far as singles were concerned, Outlaws of Thunder Junction was additionally clunky because it had too much going on for it. First, it had the
Secondly, it contained The Big Score, a set of only quasi-related but nonetheless very powerful cards which rarely appeared in packs.
The Big Score, unlike the Breaking News collection, wasn’t designed for draft – instead, it was going to be a follow-up supplement akin to Aftermath. But the resounding dissatisfaction by players with Aftermath led to everything but the rares and mythics being pulled from the roster, then being tacked on to the main set with little thought other than a different set symbol, specialty treatments, and the designation of not being Standard legal.
While this made draft clunky, it ultimately made for a positive value add-on for all forms of sealed product, as it made it all the more likely that a pack of any sort would include an additional rare or mythic (many of which actually carried substantial value). The end result? Collector Boosters that saw a 46% price increase in the past year, rebounding past their initial decline.
Route Three: Expand
Last but not least, the most recent method of handling a small set: expand it into a fully fledged product. Our case study:
While the initial size of Marvel’s Spider-Man hasn’t been publicly revealed, Wizards staff have disclosed that the initial set wasn’t going to include commons, meaning that it was most likely in the same ballpark of Aftermath. But, as we’ve talked about ad nauseam, players hated that set, so it’s no wonder that Wizards wanted to avoid another small-set collapse.
However, without another set for Wizards to tack the Spider-Man rares and mythics onto, the only other option was to build out the set. And so, here we are.
The Spider-Man crash is an extra tricky problem to solve because the pre-sale prices were hyper inflated due to speculation, as the Universes Beyond frenzy spurred by
As such, there are two ways to view things: One, the set has collapsed akin to Aftermath; or two, the set has fallen less substantially, more like Outlaws at Thunder Junction. Either way, it's been a substantial fall. The only question is how great of a rebound we can expect; will things surge back 80%+ in the coming years? Or will prices grow 30, 40% and hover closer to that MSRP range?
Wrap Up
Wizards hasn’t figured out how to handle small sets yet, that’s for sure. The initial two releases were shunned by players, while the condensed rare roster attached to Outlaws at Thunder Junction only further complicated an already unwieldy draft environment. Spider-Man, meanwhile, shows that expanding a set doesn’t necessarily guarantee that it’ll be saved, either.
Regardless of these initial failures, however, past performance puts all pointers towards substantial rebounds.
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Harvey McGuinness
Harvey McGuinness is a student at Johns Hopkins University who has been playing Magic since the release of Return to Ravnica. After spending a few years in the Legacy arena bouncing between Miracles and other blue-white control shells, he now spends his time enjoying Magic through CEDH games and understanding the finance perspective. He also writes for the Commander's Herald.