Checking in with the Lord of the Rings Holiday Edition

A little over one year ago, Wizards of the Coast released an expansive specialty treatment for The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth, this time with the epithet of “Holiday Edition.” Sold only in a limited run of Collector Boosters, the Holiday Edition brought with it alternate card treatments – both frames and foilings, an expanded roster of serialized cards, as well as new inserts thanks to the borderless series of fantasy-inspired reprints, all done by artists Greg and Tim Hildebrandt.

Initially, the Holiday Edition was viewed with much skepticism – The One of One Ring had already been pulled, so what could be more special than that? Well, time proved much of the market wrong, and Collector Boosters of Holiday Edition went on to become the most expensive Collector Booster of all time, surpassing prices of $1500 per box. 

So, with so much fanfare being directed at this undoubtedly successful sealed product, what about the single cards themselves? Let’s take a look.

Overperformers

As a whole, the single cards from the Holiday Edition can really only be understood in various tiers of success. Nothing in this set really cratered or even depreciated much at all for that matter. 

So, as a quick note, it’s worth it to understand that when I say “overperformer,” I really mean it – these cards are the ones that stand out against a backdrop of also successful candidates. Similarly, underperformers aren’t cards that fell in price, they’re just the ones that have gained the least (as an overall class). 

Alright, with that out of the way, let’s dig in to our first of two primary overperformers: Poster Cards. 

Initially, these were some of the lower-valued new treatments in the Holiday Edition. Players were split on the eye appeal of this frame, and – outside of The One Ring – not too many of the cards selected for this treatment were subject to terribly high demand otherwise. However, as attrition has taken hold and the supply has dried up, the prices on these cards have skyrocketed. Why? Because these suckers are really hard to find.

Averaging one or two per Collector Booster Box, these are prime candidates for scarcity-based price increases. Bring together the branding appeal of Lord of the Rings, the allure of an incredibly rare collectible, and it turns out you don’t need the base cards themselves to actually be that powerful – flavor and sheer lack of supply will do the work for you, boosting prices through the ceiling.

Just look at Sauron, the Dark Lord, as an example. This card has no competitive demand, but casual appeal (Commander) and scarcity have done enough collective work to raise its non-foil Poster price to nearly $150, despite the base printing only commanding a price of $12.

In a similar vein, our second overperformer class is the Hildebrandt series – a set of reprints exclusive to the Holiday Edition, each with a signature artistic style inspired by high fantasy. Spanning a wide variety of power levels, from low-end hits like Myriad Landscape (Borderless) and Tempt with Discovery (Borderless) to all-stars like Sylvan Tutor (Borderless) and Pact of Negation (Borderless), these cards have only begun to move upwards more recently, also due to the attrition forces mentioned with the poster cards.

While they may not command the astronomical prices that some of the Posters warrant (these specialty art cards are more common, after all), they do all bear a serious price multiplier over their cheaper base printings, especially in foil. I’d keep an eye out on this set – they are among the fastest-moving cards from the Holiday Edition right now.

Underperformers

Moving to underperformers, we come to one unique treatment and one specialty foiling: the Showcase Scrolls, and the Surge Foils.

As can be seen with the case of Orcish Bowmasters, these cards aren’t necessarily the cheapest versions out there – it does carry a more than 50% premium relative to its base printing, after all – but by and large these cards have been moving more slowly than other variants unique to the Holiday Edition.

Orcish Bowmasters (Showcase Scrolls), The One Ring (Showcase Scrolls), Lotho, Corrupt Shirriff (Showcase Scrolls) – these are all standout cards from the Showcase Scroll variants, but they’re all also cards that demand high prices on their own thanks to competitive play. So, while they certainly lead the pack, they aren’t indicative of the rest of this treatment.

When viewed more broadly, the greater supply of showcase cards relative to other unique treatments has limited their price growth. Popular and valuable, certainly, but not breakouts like the Posters.

Finally, our last broad category of cards worth considering in the Holiday Edition are the Surge Foils. Beyond their special foiling, these cards are no visually different from their non-foil extended art counterparts, something which puts a serious crutch on their price given the ready comparison to the much more widely available non-foil versions.

Sure, people like shiny things, and these are undoubtedly rarer than the non-foil version, but the lack of a unique frame or art style has proven to make a real difference. This similarity certainly isn’t enough to cause their prices to erode, but it has stymied growth.

Wrap Up

Unlike many instances of sealed product price growth, the explosive demand for Holiday Edition is having real impacts on the market for the singles within, as well. Boxes are going up in price, singles too, and the whole cycle repeats. Watch out for this set - $1500 for a box certainly is a lot, but it’s also a sign of interesting action going on underneath the hood.

Further Reading:

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