Bottom Gear
Aetherdrift is like a seed waiting to bloom in the right foundation. The necessary ingredients for a great set are here, with enough sprouting for what comes beyond later this year. Broadly speaking, the set and cards within it feature many returning mechanics while improving on existing strategies found across many formats. With greater emphasis on Vehicles and Cycling of cards, its scope is rather niche, and thematically, it may not appeal to everyone.
It took me about two or three weeks to turn around to the idea of the death race-style set. Slowly but surely, individual cards wore me down and made me more excited to speculate about this release's impact and how the market will react to it. While there are some clear winners, there are also some minor pitfalls ahead of us.
In the same manner that a certain car-centric movie franchise furiously peaked within its early installments, WOTC should limit our return to Omenpath racing.
Brave New Mox
“Money cards sell booster boxes” is a statement full of confidence that many would find hard to argue against. The greater the booster box's expected value, the greater amount of that product will be opened until the market self-regulates.
With Aetherdrift, yet again players have experienced changes to aspects of the product. Firstly, the number of booster packs has decreased from 36 to 30. And secondly, MSRP is back, which will make some bargain hunters happy. As a distraction to these changes, there’s also a modification to the box toppers with the big inclusion of a Chrome Mox. Seeing strong play in both Legacy and Vintage, the base-line for Chrome Mox is anywhere from $95 to $107, with early indications of the reprint curbing the upward trend in price.
Another noteworthy inclusion on the Special Guest list is Bone Miser, the creature version of Waste Not, which has exploded in price over the last three weeks. The price graph displays this card jumping sharply from $10 average to $29, which looks a lot like a specific buyout that will self-regulate in price sooner rather than later. While it’s great to have new options in terms of art and reprints, at five mana, the price point is questionable for long-term investment.
Discard Into Exile
Monument to Endurance is a catch-all card for the self-discard decks that are currently seeing a rise. Being able to acquire three different benefits every turn is a very tempting offer, especially at a low investment cost.
With a primary emphasis on EDH and the vast quantity of decks where this card fits in perfectly, it's quite easy to see its utility. From Flubs, the Fool to Varina, Lich Queen, the Monument to Endurance continues to be a tempting inclusion for the 99. While it's hard to see the potential for a breakout in other formats, I’ve been surprised by cards like this before. Currently, pre-release pricing averages around $10, though this will likely see a rapid decline closer to the $3-$5 mark before appreciating over the next year.
A card with much stronger 60-card constructed potential is Ketramose, the New Dawn. In Modern, combining it with the likes of Unearth and Psychic Frog could generate enough value to outpace opponents. Dimir-style decks have already begun to incorporate a white splash for cards like Pest Control, so transitioning to Esper isn’t a major stretch. Ketramose is already seeing a strong price point ahead of release at $28, and will likely stay above the $20 mark unless it struggles to find a viable home in any format. On another note, it's a card benefitting from the usage of exile effects, which is great to see as these are less common than graveyard interaction cards.
Goldar, Is That you?
The Commander decks for the set turned out to be above average in both value and cards included. The Eternal Might deck is currently stirring up prices more with great inclusions like Hashaton, Scarab's Fist (Borderless). This popularity is starting to see a conversion in sealed prices for the decks with many vendors reaching $70 for the Esper deck and $40 for the Temur counterpart. I can see the impact here but wonder about the long-term opportunities that lie in older sets. With many discard-matters cards being driven in value, some remain untouched. For example, I would have expected Tireless Tribe to start gaining in value as a free outlet for Hashaton, Scarab's Fist, but so far, it remains under the radar.
Another key price driver from the Esper deck is Renewed Solidarity, an enchantment that serves as a reward for typal decks that are interested in creating additional tokens - or so I initially thought. However, if you know that the tokens you’re creating will always be of one type, then the typal aspect doesn't apply. For example, Edgar Markov and Marneus Calgar have very loose requirements for the tokens they create. On the other hand, if we focus less on creature type and more on the Commander, then we have options like The Jolly Balloon Man always giving us the same type no matter the base creature.
After all is said and done, Renewed Solidarity will likely drop down towards the $10 range due to it being too focused for a wide range of decks. However, barring additional reprints, its price could easily double within the next one to two years.
Checkered Flag
Aetherdrift is full of twists and turns that kept me looking (forward) towards (searching for) the finish line. While its theme and execution may not appeal to everyone, I firmly believe there’s a wealth of interesting cards to appreciate-and plenty of opportunities for speculation. It's still early enough to buy into some undervalued pieces for those of us who are inclined to do so.
After all is said and done the overall impact of the set is going to be rather minimal and we won't see too many playables emerge until well over a month post release. A contributing factor to this is the exclusion of the set from the Regional Championship Portland. Prices will likely gain momentum for Pro Tour Aetherdrift on the 21st of February.
Join me again next time as we explore a new approach to Secret Lair.
Further Reading:
Hidden Gems for Hashaton, Scarab's Fist
Underplayed Draw Spells for Commander
