Checking In With Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth
On June 23, 2023, Wizards of the Coast released the first full-sized Universes Beyond expansion:
In spite of all that, there’s still plenty of value – and opportunity – to be had with the original release. So, let’s take a look.
Singles
No card is more emblematic of Lord of the Rings’ story than
When The One Ring first hit shelves, the card went on a generational tear through competitive and casual formats; a colorless value engine, it was one of the most played cards across Modern as well as an immediate Commander favorite which could be slotted into any and every deck.
This power and ubiquity was too much for its own good, however, as The One Ring was eventually banned in Modern, leading to a significant retraction in price. But the value certainly didn’t collapse, and over time the price for The One Ring began to rebound, rising nearly 25% from its post-ban low.
This price trajectory can be seen across Lord of the Rings’ heavy hitters, albeit without as steep a price cliff.
Looking down the price roster, we can see plenty of base-printing singles that flew under the radar in the set’s early days, but have since then had a healthy uptick.
Sealed: Draft and Set
Moving to the more readily available component of Lord of the Rings’ sealed product, where a stark division has unfolded in recent months.
Starting with the Draft Booster Boxes, the value hasn’t just held steady this year; rather, the price on these boxes has performed incredibly well. Up nearly 13% from twelve months ago, Draft Boxes of Lord of the Rings are solidly in the top class of contemporary Draft products. March of the Machine, for example, is up only 8% in that same time frame, while Lost Caverns of Ixalan (a recent better-selling Draft Booster Box) is actually down 5%.
Where things get really interesting, however, are the Set Boxes. Looking strictly at contents, these boxes have the same specialty insert (the Realms and Relics Box Topper), as well as roughly the same number of rares, if not more (36 one-rare packs in a Draft Box vs 30 one+ rare packs in a Set Box). Despite this, Set Boxes of Lord of the Rings are down nearly 7% in the past year, making them a strictly worse performing sealed asset than the Draft Boxes.
To me, this reads more like an out-of-whack market than it does a proper reflection of value. By all accounts, the Set Boxes should be priced higher than their Draft Box parallel. Sure, the number of guaranteed rares is lower in Set Boxes, but – given the distribution of bonus rares and cards from The List – this guarantee is of little concern. In practice, Set Boxes have more of the “good stuff” once you crack them open, and Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth is a set that is chock full of good stuff.
Sealed: Collector
Finally, we come to the most expensive category of Lord of the Rings: the Collector Box market. Currently priced a little over $900, sealed Collector Boxes have nearly doubled this year alone, rising 70% since July 2024. Buoyed by the rising value of the singles within, the attrition of sealed product from the market, and the rising interest in Collector Boxes of all sets, Collector Boxes of Lord of the Rings appear on track to continue their run well into the remainder of 2025, if not beyond.
Stepping back a bit, the Collector Box saga for Lord of the Rings is truly unlike any other. The One of One Ring garnered media attention the likes of which Magic had never seen before, and it led to people opening boxes of this set en masse. Given the limited, finite quantity of these packs, it’s clear as day that this rapid attrition of product would lead to long-term price appreciation. The problem, however, is that this appreciation was set back by two massive disruptions: the eventual discovery of The One of One Ring, and the release of the holiday edition.
Once The One of One Ring was opened, prices on boxes crashed as resellers sought to offload their now de-hyped product. Similarly, when the holiday edition came out, attention shifted away from the now “less special” original release and towards the only timidly-received newer rerelease. Both factors offset the initial growth which Collector Boxes would have otherwise received. Time heals all wounds, however, and the initial printing of Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth is back with a vengeance.
Wrap Up
Read More:
Cards to Watch for Modern - July 2025
Speculating on Upcoming Universes Beyond Sets
The Value of the Secret Lair Commander Deck Everyone's Invited
Harvey McGuinness
Harvey McGuinness is a student at Johns Hopkins University who has been playing Magic since the release of Return to Ravnica. After spending a few years in the Legacy arena bouncing between Miracles and other blue-white control shells, he now spends his time enjoying Magic through CEDH games and understanding the finance perspective. He also writes for the Commander's Herald.