Modern Times: ONE Revisited
Happy Wednesday everyone! Today on Modern Times, we're taking some time to review my initial predictions about Modern playables from
Predictions
All Will Be One
Initially, this card got a fair bit of hype due to its synergy with
Furthermore, the current meta is two turns too fast for All Will be One–let alone even Storm–to compete adequately. I predicted All Will be One had potential, and to some degree, it still does. As reflected by its current price point ($10), All Will be One still is in a Modern state of limbo. If the meta starts to slow, I would still contend that this is a worthy pickup in the short-term. Furthermore, its place outside of Modern, in Standard and Commander, provides additional sources of long-run speculative value.
Tyvar, Jubilant Brawler
Tyvar’s potential in Modern was tied primarily to its low mana cost and static ability to give pseudo-haste to all creatures you control. This ability in particular breathed new life into
Today, it’s around $2 and seems like it will stay there for a good while. Tyvar, much like All Will be One, is simply too slow and a little clunky for the potential combos he enables. In a similar vein, the upside potential of Tyvar in Modern is still there, particularly in the rare Elves or
Minor Misstep
Minor Misstep is a speculation I grossly overestimated. I thought it had potential to reap in value like Mental Misstep once did. This is far from the reality that this card finds itself in, especially in the Modern format. Today, it’s around $0.25 (not the $5 I thought it could be). That being said, Minor Misstep sees considerably more play than both All Will be One and Tyvar combined, making its long-run financial value more promising at the very least. The limiting factor for Mental Misstep’s speculative value is twofold: its rarity and its place in the Modern meta. Being an uncommon in the age of print-to-demand product strategies, the market is saturated with both foil and non-foil copies.
Beyond this, the only decks that are leveraging Minor Misstep in the meta are U/R decks such as U/R Aggro or Izzet Murktide, and, even then, it's usually played as a one or two-of in the mainboards of these decks or in their respective sidedecks. The simple reality of Minor Misstep is that it’s closer in practice to
If you’re a serial deck builder, you’ve probably stashed away a playset or two of Minor Missteps, which is great for brewing and meta gaming at your LGS or even more competitive events, but that’s as far as Minor Misstep’s speculative value extends.
| All Will Be One | ||
| Minor Misstep | ||
| Tyvar, Jubilant Brawler |
Reality
Soulless Jailer
Soulless Jailer is now becoming a sideboard staple for Hardened Scales Affinity and Mono Green Tron (both of which are strongly embedded in the current Modern meta). Its ability to hose any and all graveyard-based strategies along with its favorable mana cost and toughness make it a nice inclusion in artifact-based decks across the format.
Does this card have long-run speculative value? Probably not. Its use is limited entirely to sideboards in specific Modern decks (unlike the previously discussed cards that see extensive cross-format play), making its long-run potential minimal at best. That being said, it’s less than $1, and worth picking up if you play any artifact-based strategy in Modern (meta or fringe).
Venerated Rotpriest
This card is the embodiment of the phrase: “we have Infect at home.” When I wrote my initial article on ONE’s set potential for Modern, this was one of the cards I considered discussing. My issue with its speculative potential several months ago was mainly its price point. Frankly, Venerated Rotpriest was, and still is, somewhat over-valued. Some Modern brews have made a splash here or there marrying both synergies of Infect and Storm decks into a cacophony of okay-ish performance.
Given the prevalence of spot removal in Modern, Rotpriest’s potential for comboing off is extremely fragile. At the competitive level, Rotpriest-based decks have little-to-no potential, but at a casual or local level are probably fine, but not thriving by any means. That being said, Rotpriest is a $4 card that has potential to sway, but those sways will be driven by Pioneer and Standard, rather than Modern.
Jace, the Perfected Mind
Perhaps the biggest surprise of ONE was Jace, the Perfected Mind. This card has pushed Mill from the fringes to as close to the meta as it has ever been in the format. Mill went from comprising less than 1% of the meta to 2% of the meta almost instantly after Jace was printed. It may seem small, but such a swing from one single card is a rarity. That’s the difference between less than one in 100 decks being Mill at a high level event to one in 50 being Mill. This makes the scale of Mill and its presence at top tables more likely than it has ever been. Routinely, Mill is showing up in top places at Modern Event Challenges and many other higher level events.
The potential for Mill to continue to grow in Modern is higher than other decks in the format, making Jace a terrific speculation at the moment! Sitting at $5, picking up a couple for your Mill brews or Modern speculation is very low risk with a higher potential for reward than almost all other cards from ONE.
| Soulless Jailer | ||
| Venerated Rotpriest | ||
| Jace, the Perfected Mind |
Concluding Thoughts
Forecasting the long-run value of Standard set cards in the Modern format is exceedingly difficult, and like most forecasts, oftentimes wrong. My hope is that pieces like this serve as an opportunity to reflect on early predictions while accounting for new realities. In the case of ONE, the realities are far different from the predictions. That being said, ONE doesn’t offer a ton for Modern on the whole. Taking into account where we are now, Jace, the Perfected Mind and All Will Be One seem to be the highest-potential speculations for Modern at the moment, which is very different from our initial impressions many months ago!
Check out these other articles:
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Corey Williams is an Assistant Professor of Economics at Shippensburg University in Shippensburg, Pennsylvania. He considers himself a macroeconometrician with his research body reflecting work in applied macroeconomics and econometrics. Corey is an L1 Judge who started playing Magic around Eighth Edition. He enjoys Modern, Commander, cEDH, and cube drafting. Outside of Magic, he loves running, teaching, and the occasional cult movie.
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