Pick Up These Modern Outliers Before Modern Horizons 3

13 Mar
by Corey Williams

Hello readers! Today we explore the financial potential of some interesting game pieces on the edge of the Modern meta, and by “edge,” I mean game pieces not found regularly in Living End, Temur Rhinos, Leyline Rhinos, Golgari Yawgmoth, or Amulet Titan, but ultimately are still played in other second-tier competitive builds. Let’s get started!

Exploring the Outer Edge of the Meta

The Modern meta is what I would consider “periodically stable,” which is to say that over the course of roughly a year, the format’s top-end of the competitive spectrum remains relatively fixed. There is some variation of course throughout the lower-tier portions of the competitive meta, but for the most part this past year has been dominated by Temur Rhinos, Rakdos Scam, Izzet Murktide, and Amulet Titan. Sure, Beanstalk Elementals had a brief surge in popularity quelled very quickly by a swift banning of Up the Beanstalk, and decks like Golgari Yawgmoth and Living End have climbed to the top of the format in the wake of Fury’s banning, but ultimately, both decks were played in the format anyway. 

In recent times, the largest fluctuations in the format’s meta were driven by the now-annual direct-to-Modern sets: Modern Horizons, Modern Horizons 2, and The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth. Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer, Murktide Regent, the Evoke Elementals, Orcish Bowmasters, and The One Ring, among many, many other household names in the format, all emerged from these three sets over the past five years, starting with Modern Horizons in 2019. In all likelihood, given the current batch of spoilers from MagicCon: Chicago, Modern Horizons 3 is primed to be yet another periodic paradigm shift in the meta. 

So in all this turbulence and under the weight of MH3’s expectations, what are the low-risk investments one can make in Modern? What’s worth investing in that feeds into a playable deck in the meta? Today, we'll talk briefly about five cards with considerable financial upside sitting in builds lying on the outer edge of the meta in the format that are either at their lowest or offer some potential depending on the outcome of MH3. 

Eidolon of the Great Revel

Burn is a timeless archetype across Magic’s history. Going all the way back to 1993 with the release of Lightning Bolt, the concept of simply counting to 20 with cheap “deal damage” spells has been synonymous with the simplicity of the game at its inception. The simplicity and linearity in strategy of Burn builds persists through the present day, albeit with some nuanced additions, namely Monastery Swiftspear, Goblin Guide, and perhaps most importantly, Eidolon of the Great Revel. 

Once almost $30 a little over two years ago, Eidolon of the Great Revel has been trending aggressively downward, in part due to a handful of reprints, but also due to Modern Burn quietly falling to a relatively low meta-share. But don’t be fooled, Burn is still fairly competitive, though it lacks a certain level of resilience that decks like Temur Rhinos and Rakdos Scam both have.

Burn’s problem has historically been its propensity to run out of steam after the first few turns, and then struggle to catch up to opponents in the mid- to late-game. Pieces like Eidolon of the Great Revel have been integral for giving some resilience to Burn. Why play burn spells when your opponent can shock themselves every time they play a cheap spell? At worst, Eidolon gets Fatal Pushed immediately dealing two damage to your opponent in the process, while drawing away removal from Monastery Swiftspear and Goblin Guide, which do significant work early game, and preserve your Lightning Bolts and Skewer the Critics for mid-game, usually for closing the game out. 

Sitting at $3 today, Eidolon is one of the best pickups now that was previously the most expensive card in Burn. A playset of these guys for $12 is well worth the investment. Burn is historically resilient, consistent, and has a very accommodating learning curve regardless of how turbulent the format may be at times. 

Eidolon of the Great Revel
Eidolon of the Great Revel
Eidolon of the Great Revel (Borderless)

Puresteel Paladin

Equipment decks in Modern have been in a precarious position up until fairly recently. Puresteel Paladin has always been at the heart of Modern equipment brews. Its Metalcraft mechanic enables equipment costs to go to zero, and draws you a card every time an equipment is played, making it the quintessential engine for any equipment build. This card along with Sram, Senior Edificer comprised one of the funniest viable Modern decks during its time: Cheerios. Despite this, however, equipment never really rose to the top of the format, yet the demand for Puresteel remained relatively high with its price sitting at around $14 bucks as recently as April 2021 and $10 as recently as June 2023. 

Today, however–again, thanks to some timely reprints–Puresteel Paladin sits at around $2.00. Why is this great? Because it has never been more utilized in the format than it is today in Hammer Time! Hammer Time represents the first true equipment deck in Modern that can hold its own in the meta. The key ingredient? Colossus Hammer. Hammer represents the best possible equipment cost that Puresteel’s Metalcraft ability can reduce to null. Hammer Time in many ways is the best iteration of Infect or Bogles-type decks in the format, and offers the best use for fun, narrow, yet powerful cards like Puresteel Paladin, Sigarda's Aid, and Stoneforge Mystic. Puresteel Paladin’s current price decline makes it an appealing investment prospect, so don’t sit too, too long if artifacts, particularly equipment, are in your wheelhouse! 

Puresteel Paladin
Puresteel Paladin (Borderless)
Ash, Destined Survivor
Puresteel Paladin

Goryo's Vengeance

This pick is probably the most fringe of all cards we’re discussing today. Having said that, Reanimator-style decks have always struggled to find a home in Modern. Unburial Rites + Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite is really the closest we got to pure Reanimator for some time. Having said that, MH1 and MH2 gave us some nice options like Priest of Fell Rites, Unearth, Persist, and Archon of Cruelty. Even with these additions, Reanimator decks still struggled to push through a reliable path to victory, and struggled even more with resiliency. 

Enter: Atraxa, Grand Unifier. The single addition of this card to Modern from Phyrexia: All Will Be One made for an intriguing pivot in Reanimator-style brews. 

One such brew utilizes cards like Faithful Mending and Tainted Indulgence to dig for your reanimation spells, while planting reanimation targets in your graveyard. The best-case scenario is planting an Atraxa in your graveyard at the end of your opponent’s second turn, and then using Goryo’s Vengeance to reanimate her on your turn. Once you Goryo her, you get a 7/7 with haste and lifelink that can dig through the top ten cards of your deck to set up follow-up plays on your next turn. With spare mana, you can Ephemerate her to keep her in play permanently (rather than dying at the end of turn to Goryo’s Vengeance), and look through another ten cards. At this point, it becomes very, very difficult to lose. In these more “eclectic” reanimation builds, you’ll also see Griselbrand as a valid target for Goryo’s Vengeance too, which, like Atraxa, sets you up for many future plays and gains you considerable life post-reanimation.

So where does that put Goryo’s Vengeance today? Around $11 and trending a little downward, although it could just as easily be in the process of bottoming out. Admittedly, I’m a little biased. I love reanimation in Magic. It’s a fun way to play the game. It does require some setup, and in Modern is often eclipsed by Living End, which is effectively a Reanimator deck, however, pure Reanimator builds have so much potential as reanimation spells slowly creep their way into the format. With any luck, we’ll get a couple more options in Modern Horizons 3 that can complement Goryo’s Vengeance and Persist. 

Would it be worth investing in a playset? I’d say it’s probably worth the risk. Given the very recent banning of Violent Outburst in the format, Living End’s dominance as the premier pseudo-Reanimator deck may be at risk, making pieces like Goryo’s Vengeance all the more appealing going forward!

Goryo's Vengeance
Goryo's Vengeance
Goryo's Vengeance

Karn, the Great Creator

There are many Karn planeswalkers skulking about in the game of Magic. The most noteworthy of these, however, is War of the Spark’s Karn, the Great Creator (KGC), whose main format uses are twofold: shut down your opponent’s artifacts (its static ability), and fetch the artifacts you want when you want them most with his -2 ability. Playing Karn often results in the construction of dedicated “Karnboards” or “Karn Sideboards,” wherein your sideboard is built around artifacts like Cityscape Leveler, Sundering Titan, The One Ring, Chalice of the Void, and other powerful staples. A deck running a playset of Karns is effectively running a playset of every card one could grab from their respective sideboard with his -2 loyalty ability. As recently as September of 2023, Karn was $20 a copy, and almost every deck that could play this card ran it at four copies.

Today, however, Karn is trending downward, and fast! Currently it sits at $7.00, but it seems like it will likely continue to fall further, and has yet to bottom-out. It’s quite possible that KGC hits $4 or $5 a pop as Q1 2024 closes out, which makes picking up a playset now more appealing than at any other time in the card’s history. 

And which decks would you play KGC in? Two obvious ones come to mind: Tron and Mono-Black Coffers. Why? Both decks generate considerable mana from a small pool of lands very quickly. As soon as Mono-Green Tron has each Urza land in play, you’re set up for seven mana at your disposal as early as turn three, which is best spent on powerful colorless spells like Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger in your mainboard OR on game-altering artifact spells like Sundering Titan, which can be grabbed instantly from your sideboard with KGC. Mono-Black Coffers on the other hand generates significant mana from Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth and Cabal Coffers, which can also be spent on mainboarded powerhouses like Sheoldred, the Apocalypse or–once more–on game-altering artifact spells as mentioned earlier. Some variations of Amulet Titan also leverage KGC to find win conditions from their sideboard, too. Again, the trend is that decks that can generate considerable mana early love Karn. 

Karn’s presence in Tron at the very least ensures its format viability will be here to stay, as Tron is a cornerstone of Modern’s meta, and has for years been a mainstay deck one could always play. After all, the Urza lands are still legal, so why not? With MH3 spoilers like the reprint of Priest of Titania and the assumedly new “free” spell cycle cards starting with Flare of Cultivation, mana ramp is back on the menu (at least in Elves), making Karn’s potential value increasingly more widespread. Even though Karn is trending downward, I’d honestly pick up a playset before more of MH3 gets previewed. It only takes one new artifact or one new game piece to send Karn back up the price ladder!

Karn, the Great Creator
Karn, the Great Creator (Stained Glass)
Karn, the Great Creator (Old Border)
Karn, the Great Creator

Final Thoughts

Modern is a dynamic format with many, many moving pieces–a format moving faster seemingly each year. In spite of this meta turbulence, there are still many competitive game pieces worth financial consideration whose potential is overshadowed by the top-tier builds. Today, the singles discussed merely scratch the surface of lower-share competitive staples ripe for speculation and investment. Karn especially strikes me as an undercapitalized format staple that’s well worth the investment. 

As we turn a corner towards Modern Horizon 3, consider the more stable components of the Modern environment that will likely persist or get stronger with MH3. Speculate safely! 

Further Reading:

Waifus, Stickers, and a Faerie - Safe Bets

 

Corey Williams
Corey Williams

Corey Williams is an Assistant Professor of Economics at Shippensburg University in Shippensburg, Pennsylvania. He considers himself a macroeconometrician with his research body reflecting work in applied macroeconomics and econometrics. Corey is an L1 Judge who started playing Magic around Eighth Edition. He enjoys Modern, Commander, cEDH, and cube drafting. Outside of Magic, he loves running, teaching, and the occasional cult movie.


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