Is Erayo the Next Hot Card in Modern?

Modern has been quiet for the most part, as the meta finds itself in a relatively stable, and undramatic state. Perhaps Avatar: The Last Airbender may bring some new changes into the fold, but even still, in the absence of any bannings a couple weeks back, and as per WotC’s own words, Modern is relatively healthy. 

However, in this quietness, there are still a few notable singles making some subtle moves in the market.

Erayo, Soratami Ascendant

Erayo is a classic legend from Saviors of Kamigawa that has somewhat of a storied history. Banned in Commander, the goal with Erayo is to cast four cheap spells as quickly as humanly possible to “flip” her (the old school version of flipping that is). Once she’s flipped, the first spell your opponents cast each turn is automatically countered. 

Erayo brutally tempos any deck it plays against as soon as she’s flipped, forcing players to burn a spell just to cast a follow-up removal spell. Erayo’s oppressiveness in Commander led to her banning. However, despite the ire that Erayo draws, in a 60-card format, there’s always been some allure to the power she can provide. There just hasn’t been an appealing shell that could capitalize accordingly.

Enter: the unbanning of Mox Opal, and the printing of Pinnacle Emissary. Mox Opal’s unbanning reintroduced another zero-drop spell to the format that could assist in flipping Erayo. Given that Opal is typically run as a four-of, effectively Modern decks had four more spells they could jam into their deck to increase the density of relevant free spells that can flip the Moonfolk. 

More importantly, Pinnacle Monk gave Affinity shells new life, and boasts typically sixteen zero-drop artifacts: a playset of Mox Ambers, a playset of Mox Opal, a playset of Mishra's Bauble, and some combination of Engineered Explosives and Tormod's Crypt to round things out. 

Add on top of this cards like Kappa Cannoneer that are functionally free due its improvise ability, and cards like Thought Monitor, which can be easily reduced to costing a single blue pip. With the aid of Pinnacle Emissary, Affinity has more one-drop or free-spells than any other archetype in the format, making it exceedingly easy to cast four spells in a turn and flip Erayo. Erayo being a legend is also a perk in that it turns on Mox Amber, however incidental that may be. 

While not in every Affinity shell, it’s been popping up enough and performing well when it does, which warrants some highlighting. Financially, Erayo sits at $8 or so–almost double its market price on average over the past year and a half. 

So where should we expect Erayo to go from here? I’d argue it’s likely to keep climbing, but not by much. Affinity sits as the top deck in the format by meta share depending on the week (sometimes Boros Energy takes that slot, but they tend to flip-flop). If there’s more meta share to gain–even just a couple percentage points–it’s possible that we’ll see Erayo climb a couple more bucks. 

Erayo, Soratami Ascendant

CardKingdom $9.99

TCGPlayer $9.04

Force of Negation

This counterspell may be in a holding pattern, but it’s a format staple that’s found its way in and out of sideboards and mainboards of almost all archetypes that can justify playing it. Force of Negation is the one big, free counterspell that Modern has access to, and it’s only recently started to see more play than ever before, with decks like Esper Reanimator, Azorius Control, and Tameshi Belcher sporting it in the main deck.

In this world with high-impact non-creature spells like Amulet of Vigor, Scapeshift, Goblin Charbelcher, mainboarded Blood Moons, Goblin Bombardment, and everything in between, Force of Negation’s value as a safety net in control shells cannot be understated. 

The odd part is that, despite it seeing more play volumetrically, it’s not seeing play in the decks that really sit farthest atop the meta. Amulet Titan, Affinity, and Boros Energy don’t touch Force of Negation, or have counter-magic that’s more synergistic (like Metallic Rebuke). Some decks also just want to play their game plan proactively and don’t have spare room for reactivity in the main deck (Titan, Energy). 

So why am I bringing this up? Well, the Modern meta is somewhat open at the moment, so it’s not hard to imagine a world where Force of Negation sees an uptick in play in additional shells. Also, it’s very easy to imagine a world where a deck that already plays it, like Reanimator or Belcher, gains more meta share, which in-turn would push Force of Negation’s price up. 

Right now it sits at $50 or so, but I can easily envision this card rising significantly, depending on the direction the wind starts to blow. 

Force of Negation	CardKingdom $69.99	TCGPlayer $54.56
Force of Negation (Borderless)	CardKingdom $69.99	TCGPlayer $44.74
Force of Negation (Borderless)	CardKingdom $84.99	TCGPlayer $64.50

Scapeshift

Okay, let’s talk about the elephant in the room. Amulet Titan is poised to be the boogeyman of this otherwise healthy format–which isn’t a bad thing. Every format needs a top-end or ceiling to define the power level, and it looks like Titan is that ceiling. I personally don’t find Titan problematic in any way, but we have to acknowledge that Scapeshift’s recent price movements from a demand standpoint is 100% driven by Amulet Titan’s dominance. 

Scapeshift is relatively simple in its setup: Have four lands in play, and cast Scapeshift. How it wins from there can take on a variety of nonlinear directions. After all, Amulet Titan is a ramp deck with a giant mathematics textbook attached to it. But for simplicity, if you have four lands and an Amulet of Vigor in play, you:

1. Cast Scapeshift and sacrifice all your lands

2. Find two copies of Lotus Field, a bounce land (let’s say Simic Growth Chamber), and a Tolaria West

3. Float nine mana as these lands enter (all untapped thanks to Amulet)

4. Bounce Tolaria West back to your hand with Simic Growth Chamber’s enter trigger, and then sacrifice the rest of your lands to your Lotus Field Triggers

5. Transmute Tolaria West with some of your floating mana, and find Summoner's Pact

6. Cast Summoner’s Pact and find Aftermath Analyst

7. Cast Aftermath Analyst, mill three cards, and activate Aftermath Analyst

8. Bring back all eight lands with Aftermath, and float thirteen mana in the process

9. Bounce Tolaria West with Growth Chamber, transmute it and find another Summoner's Pact

10. Cast Summoner's Pact to find and cast Primeval Titan, leaving you with four mana

11. With Primeval Titan’s ETB trigger, find Echoing Deeps and have it enter as Lotus Field, and find Shifting Woodland

12. With Shifting Woodlands, copy Aftermath Analyst in your graveyard and activate its ability again

At this point you can loop Aftermath Analyst (via Shifting Woodlands) and generate infinite mana, and find an Otawara, Soaring City off a Primeval Titan ETB that can be returned to your hand with a Growth Chamber ETB allowing you to infinitely bounce and cast Primeval Titan to assemble the rest of your win condition deterministically. 

Bear in mind, this is the simplest setup and it's still exceedingly layered. Depending on a variety of in-game factors, the flowchart for how Scapeshift wins becomes a little more complicated. All the same, Scapeshift is a rare instance where just with four lands it represents a win on the spot. 

Very few cards are so agnostic to the rest of the game that can present a win simply by resolving them once. In fact, no other card in the Modern format in a singular sense wins the game as agnostically as Scapeshift, hence its use in Amulet Titan, and its current price of over $60 or so. 

Admittedly, there is a supply-side issue here as well, given that Scapeshift has really only seen one or two meaningful reprints (one of which was a bonus print sheet), but the more relevant driver of Scapeshift’s price is indisputably the demand for it in Amulet Titan shells. Folks were chattering for a bit about bans that could be levied towards Amulet Titan (like banning Lotus Field, for instance), which could change things in the future insofar as Scapeshift’s value is concerned. I don’t find a ban necessary, but it’s not for me to decide. 

Either way, Amulet Titan is one of the last Old Guard Modern archetypes that continues to evolve and is certainly a force to be reckoned with. Keep an eye on Scapeshift. If Amulet Titan continues to see an uptick in play, I imagine we’ll see Scapeshift continue to climb in value.

Scapeshift	CardKingdom $74.99	TCGPlayer $62.68
Scapeshift	CardKingdom $69.99	TCGPlayer $53.99
Scapeshift (Borderless)	CardKingdom $79.99	TCGPlayer $59.99

Closing Things Out

Modern is in a great spot, so most prices in the market are stable. I’ll certainly be keeping an eye on Avatar’s impact on the meta, and am looking forward to our return to Lorwyn and what it can bring. Speculate safely!

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