Will Outlaws of Thunder Junction Affect Modern?
Hello folks! Today’s Modern Times dives into the upcoming
Outlaws of Thunder Junction: A Paradigm Shift
I’ll be the first to admit that I have mixed feelings about this set. On the one hand, I love Commander-like sets and innovative game pieces. But on the other hand, OTJ is fundamentally a Standard-legal set that just happens to have a heavy emphasis on legendary permanents–be it creatures, enchantments, or planeswalkers. Beyond this, OTJ has two bonus print sheets:
Add on top of both of these bonus sheets the fact that we still have 10 new
But what is left over when you strip away the excess? In isolation, what value is there in OTJ? In the absence of the bonus sheets and Special Guests, you’re really left with a disorienting amount of Commander-format cards in a Standard set pack wrapper. While this isn’t a completely new phenomenon, it does represent a continuance of a paradigm shift in Standard set design and product strategy. Given the prevalence and accessibility of Commander, every set and product is seemingly designed to appeal to Commander players first, then to players in Standard or Modern second. Given this, what cards in the base OTJ set and The Big Score have potential for Modern or similar constructed formats? Not many, but there’s a couple highlights worth financial discussion.
So for today, let’s talk about two cards with some interesting potential from the main set, and one gem from the Big Score bonus sheet.
Assimilation Aegis
Now, we should always take preorder prices with a grain of salt. As of the writing of this piece, this Azorius-colored Equipment is commanding an $18 asking price.
Having said that, Aegis has an incredibly appealing design. For three mana, at the very worst, it acts as a narrower version of
So where does this card have potential in Modern? Look no further than Hammer Time. Full of equipment and spells that care about equipment, like
Do I think it’s worth $18? Absolutely not. Please don’t pay that much for this card. Wait for release. Packs of this set are going to be flying out of game stores near you like confetti out of a pinata. The supply of Assimilation Aegis is going to be enormous, and the demand for it will largely be drawn in the Modern format from Hammer Time players, who are in the minority in terms of meta share. Give it a couple weeks for prices to settle, and then go pick up the copies you need (likely one or two, more than that seems excessive) at what I would project to be between $5-$10 per card.
Editor's Note: At time of publication, the price of Assimilation Aegis has already dropped to $5.
| Assimilation Aegis | ||
| Assimilation Aegis (Extended Art) |
Jace Reawakened
Admittedly, this card was the most reluctant inclusion in this article. From a value standpoint, the preordering asking price is around $20 about a week out from release. Whether that’s reflective of potential or uncertainty as to its efficacy is tough to say.
A two mana planeswalker isn’t something that’s easy to ignore, which is why I can’t bypass it for discussion in this article. Having said that, while
That being said, some ambitious brewers have recognized that it is legal to cast Jace on your opponent’s first, second, or third turns, given the wording of the casting condition. As such, there’s talk of playing it with
So as far as two mana planeswalkers go, where does Jace fall? It’s definitely better than Tibalt, and by a large margin, but it’s also not Wrenn and Six, and falls short of Wrenn’s power by a large margin, too. In essence, Jace is in an odd limbo in terms of its usefulness. It’s tough for me to envision a deck that’s currently viable in Modern’s competitive scene that would want to make room for this. On the other hand, the brew potential is sky-high with this card, hence the high speculator preorder price. I could envision this card seeing play in As Foretold-like archetypes where you can cast Jace on turn four and use it to plot an
Overall, I personally wouldn’t spend $20 to preorder this card, but I’d be willing to invest as high as $10 or so for a couple given its potential.
| Jace Reawakened | ||
| Jace Reawakened (Borderless) |
Pest Control
Okay, this is the card I’m most excited about from this set, and, ironically, it’s not in the main set. This Big Score bonus sheet card is incredibly powerful. Like most powerful cards, it’s cheap to play, and has a simple ability: destroy all nonland permanents with a mana value of one or less… Oh, and it can be Cycled–a nice extra line of text, which enables you to convert this card if it’s dead into a replacement for two generic mana.
The fact that this explicitly hits all nonland permanents that are one mana in value or less is huge. That means it hits Rhino Tokens,
Because of the current meta, Pest Control’s utility is very matchup-dependent. In half of the matchups between the A-tier and B-tier portions of the meta, Pest Control is just so good, and in the other half, it just has little-to-no use. That being said, in the right deck–say Orzhov Scam–this acts as a cheap and efficient board wipe that can heavily skew matchups in your favor, while still providing some utility in less-desirable matchups. Again, for two mana, you can always cycle it or pitch it to
The big lingering question mark over the future of Pest Control and its long-run potential is how will the meta shape out after MH3? If MH3 pushes even a few decks out of the meta that this card is otherwise dead against, then the utility and potential of it both competitively and financially could be immense.
| Pest Control | ||
| Pest Control (Showcase) | ||
| Pest Control (Extended Art) |
Some Final Thoughts
The problem regarding OTJ and its potential for Modern is twofold: first, it's designed fundamentally to appeal more to Commander than constructed formats like Standard or Modern; secondly,
Alright, that wraps things up for this article. Good luck, and speculate safely!
Further Reading:
An Introduction to Pricing Alpha, Beta, and Unlimited
Corey Williams is an Assistant Professor of Economics at Shippensburg University in Shippensburg, Pennsylvania. He considers himself a macroeconometrician with his research body reflecting work in applied macroeconomics and econometrics. Corey is an L1 Judge who started playing Magic around Eighth Edition. He enjoys Modern, Commander, cEDH, and cube drafting. Outside of Magic, he loves running, teaching, and the occasional cult movie.
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