Checking In With Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty

Released on February 18, 2022, Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty immediately burst onto the scene as one of Magic’s most popular sets in recent memory. Packed with a cycle of utility lands that quickly rose to Commander ubiquity (and some multi-format success), the return of Sagas led by a card so powerful it was banned a little over a year later, and all the flavor a Vorthos could beg for, Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty truly was Magic at its best. 

On top of all that, the set brought with it a roster of specialty treatments courtesy of its Collector Boosters that would serve as a portent of things to come - namely, Neon Ink. So, three years later, how are things holding up? 

Let’s dig in.

Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty - The Singles

Starting off with the roster of cards that actually makes up Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty, we can see that the set is still supported by a bevy of heavy-hitters, both rare and mythic. Starting with the set’s notorious banned card, let’s take a look at Fable of the Mirror-Breaker.

Peaking at around $25 just before its Standard ban in May of 2023, Fable of the Mirror-Breaker continues to see play across Pioneer, Modern, and Legacy, where it plays a crucial role in all manner of midrange red decks. Its price has certainly taken a tumble since its Standard-era heyday – currently resting around $9 – but that’s nothing to scoff at, especially for a rare.

Speaking of pricy rares, the real story of Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty rests on the shoulders of its land cycle. Takenuma, Abandoned Mire, Otawara, Soaring City, and Boseiju, Who Endures are three of the most expensive cards in the set – maintaining prices of $8, $20, and $35 each, respectively. Unlike Fable of the Mirror-Breaker, however, these cards aren’t just limited to traditional competitive environments like Modern (although some certainly see play there); rather, these cards have gone on to be near auto-includes across all brackets of Commander.

This casual desirability is reflected in the price trends for each of these lands, as they’ve all stabilized and/or appreciated since the set was released. Fable of the Mirror-Breaker took a hit due to the ban and found a healthy floor, but these lands just keep ticking up as more and more players look back at Magic’s vast card pool and slot them into the ever-growing Commander deck base. 

As far as this competitive/casual divergence affects Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty, it’s actually really healthy for the set long-term. Having multiple cards with desirability supported from across sectors of the Magic player base contributes to the set’s overall appreciation, something that will be all the more visible in our next section.

Sealed: Draft and Set

Turning to the main sealed contingent for Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty, we can see that both the Draft and Set booster boxes have held up remarkably well over the past three years. 

Starting with Draft boxes, this section of the product line is up an average of 12% over the past year, a number that’s roughly in line with projections for many of contemporary Magic’s more popular releases, such as Bloomburrow and Tarkir: Dragonstorm. Comparing against sets released closer to Neon Dynasty, however, we can see just how much the set continues to overperform.

Streets Of New Capenna, for example, is only up 8% in the same timeframe. Not too bad, especially given the poor reception it received upon release, but still far away from Neon Dynasty’s 12% run. Similarly, Innistrad: Crimson Vow is down 3% this year. 

Looking back at the singles from these sets, it's immediately evident just how far apart they are from Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty’s roster of ubiquitous bombs. Streets of New Capenna brought with it the second installment of Triomes (the first was in Ikoria), but that’s still far and away from the ubiquity of Boseiju and company. Crimson Vow, meanwhile, barely had anything of note in it. It had all the flavor that Streets of New Capenna lacked – enfranchised Magic players have historically loved a good Innistrad set – but none of the playables.

This split resulted in Neon Dynasty looking all the better by comparison, as more and more players rushed to buy up packs from the exciting set while ignoring the plethora of disappointing ones. In the short term, this meant more sales for Wizards, but in the long term this means less sealed on the market – and more unmet demand. 

The Collector Environment

Speaking of unmet demand, let’s check in with the Collector market - and boy oh boy is it a doozy. First, the sealed boxes.

It may not be in the $300+ range that some contemporary Standard releases have met, but on a percentage basis Kamigawa is on a solid tear. In the past year alone, Collector boxes are up nearly 30%, hitting roughly $280 a box on the open market. Impressively, this price hasn’t just been buoyed by the cards within, but it’s also climbed higher despite the tanking of some of the set’s most collectable items: namely, the Neon Ink Hidetsugu.

Unlike the Collector boxes, Hidetsugu here hasn’t exactly skyrocketed. Rather, most of these specialty printings have fallen in price. This is largely because Hidetsugu, Devouring Chaos is by no means a competitive, or even casual, icon. Rather, these chase cards represented one of Wizards’ first forays into the world of manufactured scarcity, applying a hyper-rare treatment to a select card. That card, however, was one with no demand of its own, and that’s shown in the prices.

The red Hidetsugu, for example, is the rarest of the bunch. Debuting with a price tag in the thousands, this card garnered all sorts of player, collector, and even media attention. In recent years, however, the price has tanked – but not to nothing. It’s still a super rare Magic card, afterall, and that’s kept it hovering in the $500 range; not too bad for a card with zero utility-based demand. 

Going back to the sealed Collector boxes, Hidetsugu’s story makes them – and the “normal” cards within – stand out all the more by comparison. Sure, the extended art treatments of playable cards have been appreciating with time, but by and large the story of sealed Collector boxes is all their own – one of very few boxes left and plenty of people clamoring for the last supply.

Wrap Up

By all accounts, Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty continues to be a smash hit. Ubiquitous cards, healthy price appreciation across all sealed classes, and even some chase non-serialized collector cards that haven’t completely eroded in price over the past three years.

Looking at the sets immediately before and after, it’s clear just how much Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty pulled the wait of a lackluster year in Magic. The only question is, how much will those initial sales numbers continue to affect its price going forward? 

Further Reading

Do Lands Affect Sealed Magic Prices?

Speculating on Upcoming Universes Beyond Sets

The Value of the Secret Lair Commander Deck Everyone's Invited