Weekly Winners 2018-11

After weeks and weeks of spoiler related spikes and buyouts we are now in calmer financial waters. But there are some very interesting movements to report concerning well known and widely played staples. And all three winners this week are at their all time high.

Once again, right in time for FNM, I will now tell you what cards will be the talk of the town tonight!

 

#1 Bloodstained Mire $48.57 (+38.85%) ALL TIME HIGH

 

As of today, Bloodstained Mire has reached its all time high at a price of $48.57. And yes, this means the card is now more expensive than it was in the period leading up to the reprint in Khans of Tarkir. The card sees play in a whopping 15 different archetypes in both Modern and Legacy. In Modern, Bloodstained Mire holds is the #7 most played card in the format, #4 when you exclude basic lands:

Top 5 most played cards in Modern - basic lands excluded

1. Lightning Bolt

2. Path to Exile

3. Wooded Foothills

4. Bloodstained Mire

5. Thoughtseize

In Legacy, Bloodstained Mire does not reach the top 50.

The current uptick in price is a simple mechanic of an increase of demand for a card that has a limited supply. Being a fetchland it is not a card that any player would easily trade away when switching decks. Even when archetypes change, new decks are born and old ones are abandoned, the chances that a red and/or black deck will be playing Bloodstained Mire is pretty high. Tournament players should keep a playset of all fecthlands, whatever the circumstances. Because players tend not to buy, sell, and rebuy playsets of fetchland, an influx in players of a format causes an increase in price.

But interestingly, the Khans of Tarkir printing of Bloodstained Mire seems to remain stable, although it seems to be increasing a slightly over the past months. The newer printing has a much bigger print run and is therefore cheaper priced. But still, an influx of players should be visible in a newer printing as well, and that is not the case with Bloodstained Mire. So something else must be going on!

At the time of writing, there are no near mint copies of the original Bloodstained Mire left in any stores. Since the newer version is both much cheaper and in plenty supply, it seems that the price increase of the card is driven by speculation, more than organic demand. But be warned, the market price of the KTK printing has been picking up over the past weeks, a clear sign that the AVG might start going up soon as well.

 

#2 Leyline of the Void $29.50 (+31.46%) ALL TIME HIGH

 

Leyline of the Void is one of those cards that has been creeping up in price ever since it was printed. In 2012, a M11 playset would have cost you a mere $4,80. Doing the same thing today costs you $113 more. The Guildpact printing shows the same, almost linear, increase in price over the years.

Just like with Bloodstained Mire above, Leyline of the Void sees play in both Legacy and Modern, but this time, the card is on the most played cards list in Legacy, securing spot 48. It doesn't reach the top 50 in Modern. And at this time, no near mint copies are left anywhere. This drives up the AVG price, but the market price has been stable over the past days, meaning that people are either not able to buy near mint copies of the card, or unwilling to pay more than $25 a piece.

For those of you unfamiliar with how this card works and why it is good, let me explain the sheer power of Leyline of the Void. It is a card played 3 or 4 times in sideboards. Whenever you are (for instance) paired against a graveyard deck like Dredge or Reanimator in Legacy, you can side in your leylines. Against some decks, it really pays of to mulligan into Leyline of the Void. You start out with it on the board and your opponent can either scoop right away, or start digging for an out, right from the start of the match. This grants you the time to make up for the advantage you lost by mulliganing into it. The big downside of playing with leylines is twofold. First of all, you don't always draw into it, even when taking mulligans. And second, sometimes you draw into it when you don't need it (for instance because you already have a resolved copy on the board). And if you are especially unlucky, you have both downsides at once: when Leyline of the Void is your first draw after going to a 4 card hand after not mulliganing into it.

 

#3 Trinisphere $38.99 (+30%) ALL TIME HIGH

Weekly winner number three, and the third example of an evergreen staple in several eternal formats. And on top of that: the third all time high. Trinisphere is the only card this week that sees regular play in Vintage. Ravager Shops (or MUD) decks in Vintage play a single copy of the card. This is the #1 deck in vintage, with almost 30% of the meta.

In Legacy, Trinisphere is played in both tier 1 deck Lands, as several lower tiered decks like Mono-Red prison, Eldrazi Post and Mono-red Sneak Attack. In Modern, the primary deck using Trinisphere is G/R land destruction.

Last week, Ravager Shops, Lands and G/R landdestruction all netted good results in tournaments. For Ravager Shops these were consistently good MTGO league results. For Lands and G/R landdestruction there were good finishes in SCG tournaments. Top that off with the fact that the card has a fairly unique ability, is reprinted only in foil and originates from a lesser played set. Last but not least, Trinisphere was not in Masters 25, but it certainly is a iconic Magic card and could have been included in the set.

 

Yellow Alert: Revised Dual Prices

In this new (and maybe one time) segment, I want to share some mildly interesting finance news with you. Certainly nothing breaking, nowhere near a news alert. But still, a Yellow Alert is appropriate.

Lets get to the news: Revised Duals are showing out the ordinary price increases over the past 3 months. Out of all Magic cards; duals are the most safe 'investments' you can make. Since the are increasingly popular while they are on the reserved list and will never be reprinted, you will always buy the lands for cheaper than you will sell them for a year down the road. This surprises no one, as the man says: it is known Khaleesi.

Even when taking that into account, the Revised duals are seeing a faster increase in price than usual. With the exception of Underground Sea, all duals have shown an increase of at least 4.6% since January 1, 2018. An increase that normally takes at least 8 months is now seen in under 3 months. And even at a much faster rate with both Tundra and Badlands.

For your convenience, I have put the price changes is a simple table. Please note that I am talking about the market prices of duals. The market price is the average price in actual transactions and gives information on how much players are willing to actually pay for a card.