Weekly Winners 2019 - 17

Another very interesting Finance week in Magic! Our #1 is again EDH related and has, again, a link with Feather, the Redeemed. But speculation on Modern and the upcoming Mythic Championship that features the London Mulligan is having influence as well.

 

#1 Celestial Kirin $8.95 (+1.160,56%)

 

Wow. We haven't had a spike this high for quite a while. Coming from just $0.71, Celestial Kirin there was a lot of room for winning value. But a 1k%+ spike is still quite an accomplishment. But beware, this spike has all signs of a buyout.

Celestial Kirin is not that good of a card to start off with. Sure, in a block that was packed with Spirits and Arcanes it could have done some damage. But up until now, Celestial Kirin has seen no play in any format outside your own kitchen table. Even in EDH decks that utilize spirits or Arcanes, Celestial Kirin was not included.

As the WAR spoiler season has ended and we are headed for its release, brewers of all brands are working to find new strategies for their formats, using the new set in combination with existing cards. Especially EDH has been a big driver in speculation, more than ever before during spoilers season. Never have we seen three #1 winners in a row that were caused by EDH, let alone caused by a single Commander.

EDH is both extremely popular and it has become a target for speculators. Both players and speculators jump on any possible strategy, new combo or new archetype. The fear of missing out seems to drive the market crazy. Even small time content creators have a big influence on card prices. Often I get messages after posting my articles with (especially EDH) players that they see causations between spikes and podcasts, videos and articles by small time creators.

Celestial Kirin's spike is caused by two cards in WAR that have synergy with it. First, that one commander again: Feather, the Redeemed. Its ability lets you recycle the spells you cast on target creatures you control. With Celestial Kirin, you have a steady permanent destructor, at least when you play an Arcane strategy with Feather, the Redeemed. Skyfire Kirin is another example of a card that can be used in that strategy. If you don't want to steal it, you can always kill it.

The other card that has synergy with Celestial Kirin is Ugin's Conjurant. Because it is a Spirit, it triggers Celestial Kirin's ability. Before you start grinding your gears: the cost is always when outside the stack. But when it's on the stack the CMC of a spell is that what you paid for it. Combine it with Celestial Kirin and you either have a costed removal spell. Or, when = , you can destroy all lands.

These are nice combos, but nothing really out of the ordinary or outside the EDH power scale. The lack of decent discussion on forums and socials leads me to conclude that Celestial Kirin's spike is probably a buyout, mixed in with a sprinkle of organic demand.

 

Celestial Kirin

CardKingdom $5.99

TCGPlayer $8.95

 

#2 Fury of the Horde $9.99 (+271.38%)

 

The last time we reported on Fury of the Horde was back in early 2015 when Narset, Enlightened Master was the newest kid on the block in EDH. If you think it is safe to assume that Fury of the Horde's spike this week was caused by EDH, you would be wrong. Sure, it sees play in EDH, but this spike is caused by a new strategy in Modern. Check out this DeckTech video by MTGGoldfish.

This new deck strategy preys on the new London Mulligan rule that is currently being tested on MTGO and on the upcoming Mythic Championship.

Also, allow me to toot my own horn for a little bit. One important rule of thumb I always come back to is this one: always buy a playset of cards with alternative costs. Consider Force of Will, delve, Phyrexian mana and even spectacle cards. Eventually, cards like Fury of the Horde will be useful in some kind of deck, in the right environment (say: a new mulligan rule) and spike. I'm still waiting for Thunderclap to be broken; but I think that is one card that might never be good enough.

 

Fury of the Horde
Coldsnap	CardKingdom $2.99	TCGPlayer $9.99
Duel Decks: Speed vs. Cunning	CardKingdom $2.49	TCGPlayer $3.50

 

#3 Hive Mind $18 (+111.27%)

 

For cheap cards it is much, much easier to spike with 100%+. For cards like Hive Mind conditions need to be perfect in some way to allow an already popular card to more than double in price. Amulet Combo in Modern is gaining popularity and this is increasing the demand for any cards played in that deck. Hive Mind is one of those cards.

Organic demand for a card when a particular deck becomes more popular is not enough for a card to double in price over just a week time. Unless the specific card is from an older, lesser printed set and sees play in more formats/ archetypes. With Hive Mind this is not the case. But the fact that it has not been reprinted helps push it over the edge.

With this spike the story is simple: speculators closely watch the inventory of vendors. When they see the supply of a certain card dry up while there is real demand for it, they jump on it. That is what happened with Hive Mind. The card was already increasing in price starting mid March out of organic demand. And speculative demand pushed it over the edge and into an all time record high.

 

Cheap Pickups

Please note: for our 'record low' we consider the price of the card over the past 7 years. Many cards have been even cheaper (a) decade(s) ago. Also note: some cards are still going down, and might be even cheaper pickups next week.

 

Tarmogoyf $54.50 - Record low and bottoming out

 

Lyra Dawnbringer $10.94 - Record low and bottoming out

 

Vedalken Shackles $8 - Record low and going down

 

Vedalken Shackles	CardKingdom $9.99	TCGPlayer $8.00
Tarmogoyf	CardKingdom $59.99	TCGPlayer $54.50
Lyra Dawnbringer	CardKingdom $9.99	TCGPlayer $10.94