Weekly Winners 2018-17

Last week's trends are continuing into this week. Saprolings are doing well on the kitchentable. Meanwhile Muldrotha is still the hottest kid on the block in Commander. And the Reserved list has now grown into a big bubble.

Once again, just in time for FNM, I will now tell you what cards will be the talk of the town tonight!

Do you want to get notified the second the our interests are published? MTGStocks.com has a Telegram announcements channel that gives you a headsup when the interests are in. And you'll see the top3 winners of that day in the same message. Check it out!.

 

#1 Tendershoot Dryad $5.62 (+462%) ALL TIME HIGH

 

Saprolings continue to be a hot archetype. Tendershoot Dryad can be a champion in your deck if you are able to race your opponent and recieve the City's Blessing. One way to do this is create some Saproling Tokens that count towards your 10 permanent target for the blessing. And since you get a token every upkeep, Tendershoot Dryad helps you towards the City's Blessing as well.

And since Tendershoot Dryad is not a legend, you can have multiple copies on the battlefield, what means that your Saprolings can get +4/+4 or even +6/+6 if you happen to land a third Tendershoot Dryad but that would probably be overkill.

 

#2 River Kelpie $9.94 (+349%) ALL TIME HIGH

River Kelpie has insane synergy with that new Commander on the block: Muldrotha, the Gravetide. When you control both, you get to draw a card for every permanent you put into play with Muldrotha, the Gravetide's ability. And that's exactly what you need, since you want to have many, many cards in your graveyard and not in your library!

Having what's called card advantage is one of the most important thing when you play Magic. If you are able to draw more cards than your opponent, this means that you have access to more cards and are better able to find the cards you need most. Nothing is more of a drag than having no good cards to play and at the same time waiting to draw something good from the top of your deck. River Kelpie gives you a lot of advantage, since for every card you get to put in play (free card advantage), you also draw a card (also free card advantage).

This means that when you play against another Muldrotha EDH deck, and your opponent controls a River Kelpie and you don't, you will have a bad time. And unless you exile his/her River Kelpie or play your own copy of it, you will probably lose. Just because River Kelpie gives you so much advantage in Muldrotha decks, and those decks are now very popular, it is no surprise that River Kelpie gains in price.

 

#3 Many, Many, reserved list cards

 

Reserved list speculation is still going strong. Every day new cards spike to record levels due to buyouts by speculators, but now also by non-speculators that are afraid of missing out on sweet deals and wishing to make a quick buck out of it. This week I will not write about a random Reserved List (RL) card that spiked, neither will I complain about the Reserved List (as I did last week). Instead I will give you some insight on the impact of the RL on card prices.

WARINING! - It's a bubble!

The RL market is overheated and a bubble is forming. That's what I want to start out with. There are valuable cards on the RL that might be profitable to buy, but there are many others that have little to no value. Meanwhile, everything is spiking. Even a card like Sedge Troll.

This is what speculators want

Even speculators call it a bubble at this time. To paraphrase a forum conversation I read this week: "It's a bubble and I love it when people are buying into it!"

When speculators buy out a certain card, they try to snap as many copies of the card as possible. As the stores are out of stock, the TCG mid price spikes. The only copies that are not bought are those that are overpriced and that can drive up the median price. Also: stores change their prices since there seems to be a lot of demand with no supply left. Also, on Ebay the card needs to be bought out as well.

That's just the first step. That speculator now has a stack of copies that has cost him quite some money. Since he is the only one buying the card and there is no demand, he has no way to move the card, since nobody is actually interested in the card. What needs to happen is that stores update their buylist to such a price, that it is profitable for the speculator to sell all the cards he has.

In another conversation I read this week, one speculator said (I'm paraphrasing): "Store X is now screaming on Facebook that they want to buy card Y for $8, the same card they were not interested in buying for $1,50 two days ago".

Watch the MARKET price

Do you want to know what a card should really cost? Check out the Market price that we include automatically on every card page. The market price shows you what people really pay for a card. Especially with Reserved List cards and cards that are being bought out, the Market Price is your friend. It shows you what people are willing to pay for a card in reality, not what a card is listed for in a webstore. If you want to see a good example, check out Sedge Troll's market price and its AVG.

The Reserved List means nothing

The Reserved List is not a banned list.

It's not a list of overpowered cards.

It's not a list of safe investments.

--> It's just a list of cards Wizards has promised they won't reprint. Ever. To preserve collector's value.

This means that a cards being on the reserved list means very little. There are many other cards in Magic that Wizards will never, ever reprint. Say, Giant Albatross [Version 2] or Dwarven Trader [Version 2]. Or even Altar's Light or Night Revelers. That does not make those cards more interesting, in fact it means the opposite.

A card being on the reserved list means that it won't be reprinted. And if it is a trash card, like Sedge Troll it has no value to preserve. Unless someone buys it out to drive up the price and people follow the hypetrain and are suddenly willing to pay top dollar simply because a card is on the reserved list.

To say it again, in a slightly different way. The fact that the card is on the reserved list does not mean it deserves to be more expensive. It does not mean it should have a higher price. But by making them exclusive, it also makes them interesting targets for speculators.

When the Reserved List DOES mean something

When a card is trash, being on the reserved list doesn't change a thing. It only prevents a $0.19 card becoming a $0.12 card. But when a Legacy, Vintage or EDH staple is on the reserved list, that changes a lot! For instance Lion's Eye Diamond sees play in many Legacy and Vintage decks. And since it is on the reserved list, you know that none will ever be reprinted. That makes it a limited resource in a game that has a growing player base. It will go up.

If you check out Lion's Eye Diamond's graph you will notice that the market price trends up quickly, in contrast to the trash Troll that you inspected above. There is real demand. People that want to finish their Storm decks really need the card and will pay top dollar to aquire it.

Advice: Don't buy cards like Sedge Troll

Always check what you are willing to pay for a card, if you really need it and if you really believe the card is worth the price. When you are surprised by the high price of any card, ask yourself with what kind of card you are dealing with?

• Does it see tournament play in Standard, Modern, Legacy, Vintage?
• Does it see play in Commander, Brawl or Pauper?
• Is it a popular Casual/ Kitchentable card?
• Are the MID and Market price comparable?
• is this card my only alternative?
• Do I really want it?

And now look at Sedge Troll and ask those questions. The answer to all questions will probably be no. And in that case, don't pay $11.96 for that card. Its not worth it. Maybe if you play Old School magic (93/94) you'll want to play it, but for that price?

Also, to be completely fair,Sedge Troll has seen tournament play. Once. Check out this great decklist from Pro Tour Rome 1998.