An interesting week with interesting spikes, especially for those who play Legacy. All three winners see play in Legacy.
Once again, right in time for FNM, I will now tell you what cards will be the talk of the town tonight!
Lake of the Dead sees almost no tournament play, outside some odd legacy reanimator builds. But that might change. Last month, two articles were posted by SaffronOlive on MTGGoldfish. In the first, instant deck tech, featured a deck using Lake of the Dead and Cabal Coffers to cast the fatties black has to offer. And this week he took that decklist as the subject for his Much Abrew segment. In this article he shows a refreshing low-cost legacy deck.
SaffronOlive is not only followed closely by players interested in new, exciting budget brews, but also by speculators that want to make a quick buck out of it. So his articles drive both organic demand and speculative demand. Interestingly, Lake of the Dead did not spike right after the first march article was published. In fact, the card spiked before SaffronOlive's second article last Monday. After that it did spike again to its current all time high.
Lake of the Dead's spike is the result of both a buyout and a rise in organic demand. Even before the articles Lake of the Dead was picking up value with a yearly spike in price. It went from $5 in 2015 to $11 in 2017 and later that year to $18. Lake of the Dead sees play in EDH and sometimes in Legacy. It has the feel that it can be broken someday in a combo deck. The card is from an old set with a small print run compared to current sets, so supply is low. An increase in demand can have a quick effect on prices since card stores don't have stacks and stacks of the card lying around.
Although Lake of the Dead's spike is both organic and a buyout, it is mostly a buyout. A big tell is the market price ($42) that lags far behind the TCG MID price. This means people are not willing to pay more than around $40 for this card. But that is still $8 a copy more than before the spike. It will be interesting to follow the price of Lake of the Dead I really wonder how much real demand there is for the card.
Sylvan Safekeeper sees Legacy play in Dark Depths decks for over a year now, the #10 in the list of most played legacy decks in the meta. But don't be fooled by that listing: Lands, Sneak and Show, Mono-red Prison, ANT, Elves, Sultai Delver and Death and Taxes only see more play within a 0.3% - and 1.6% of meta. It takes just one big tournament where the deck performs well to rise and shine in the top 5, maybe even top 3. And don't forget that the card sometimes sees play in other archetypes as well.
$1.40 is a low price tag for a card that sees play (3 copies maindeck) in a deck that is a stable part of the Legacy metagame. And Sylvan Safekeeper has an interesting story. In December '17 and February '18 Sylvan Safekeeper's foil price spiked to heights of $35 dollars. I've seen multiple postings on forums and social media of people looking for the foils, but were unable to acquire them. This matters because Commander-set reprints of the card have no foil. A spike in foil price is a (big flashy neon) sign that something might be up with the supply and demand of a card. In Sylvan Safekeeper's case the foil supply is so low that any substantial increase in demand affects the price.
This week the regular printing of Sylvan Safekeeper followed after showing a quick and fast increase in price since the beginning of march. Its Commander counterparts show the same increase. An already increasing demand might have been topped off with a good 2nd place in SCG Classic Cincinnati on march 25.
Every speculator (and trader) loves cards that are:
- On the reserved list
2a. Seeing play as mainboard 4-ofs in competitive decks
2b. or see play as 2 or 3-ofs in many different competitive decks
Lion's Eye Diamond is one of those cards that will be holding value and even increase over time as long as it sees play in competitive formats. And Lion's Eye Diamond is a centerpiece in Legacy's Storm and Dredge decks, and it sees play in Vintage Maniac decks as well.
Since the organic demand for Lion's Eye Diamond is pretty stable its current price increase is probably due to speculation. The card has been featured many times in many articles over the past year as being a safe investment with good potential to increase in price. A since the card is an auto-add in Storm Decks, people are willing to pay top dollar for the card. Also because it is an safe investment for those who just seek to buy cards to put in a deck and play tournaments with. When Storm begins to bore you, you'll probably be able to trade your playset away for multiple playsets of other cards you need for another Legacy deck.
Do note that Lion's Eye Diamond's market price is lagging behind, and the European price (€91.72) is even lower. The market price is picking up though, going from $138 on April 1, to $162 today. Expect it to get higher. Supply is extremely low over the past few days. This might drive players that own 2 or 3 copies of their card to complete their playsets. And they might just be willing to dig out their wallets for that last copy. Followed by soothing thought that the copies they once bought for $40 are now $240 cards.
