The Big Things - Pay to Play (Boosters)

On October 16, Wizards of the Coast announced that Draft Boosters and Set Boosters were dead, and that Play Boosters were here to take their place.

Already, the Magic world has been ablaze discussing the pros and cons of this, but a change as massive as this is going to have repercussions far beyond the immediate shifts in price of a draft or the number of product lines stores will need to stock. So, let’s get into the nitty gritty of it. 

It’s time to talk Play Boosters.

Play Boosters - The Product 

First things first, let’s set the scene - Play Boosters, a new, draftable booster pack with the same price as Set Boosters, are primed to debut with the release of the Standard set Murders at Karlov Manner, which will be available in February of 2024. When they hit shelves, three key things will immediately be noticeable across the new product line:

1. Play Boosters will have one fewer playable card than Draft Boosters, but the number of rares will increase, for an average closer to 1.5 (thanks to two Wild Card slots). Additionally, each pack will have one guaranteed foil.

2. Prices are going up. The days of a $4.50 (the U.S. average price) Draft Booster are gone, and the cheapest available Booster will now be the $6 - $7 Play Booster. 

3. Because prices are going up but the number of packs are staying the same at thirty-six per box, the average price of a Booster Box will increase almost $40 for in-store purchases.

Overall, the best way to think about Play Boosters is akin to that of a standardized, draftable Set Booster. Two more cards (against a Set’s twelve), some extra luck courtesy of Wild Card slots and The List, and the same higher price. Importantly, Play Boosters will have the same rare-per-dollar ratio as a Draft Booster (something Wizards went out of their way to explain in their announcement article), meaning that consumers will still be getting the same bang-for-their-buck, but the entry price has been raised. 

Play Boosters - The Secondary Economics 

We’ve already set out that Play Boosters are going to be more expensive, that much is clear from the announcements. What is less clear, however, but equally important, is how this product change is going to impact the price of Magic singles overall. Let’s break it down.

With the price of packs going up, but the ratio of dollars-to-rares staying the same, a surface level investigation will turn up that the price of cards should stay the same. We are paying more, but getting more, right? It should all balance out, at least in theory. Where this theory becomes an ambiguous economic experiment, however, is when we consider how many Play Boosters are going to be opened. 

In the announcement, one of the key points Wizards highlighted as to why Play Boosters were being released was due to the sales of Set Boosters vastly eclipsing Draft Boosters. This means that the majority of non-foil, traditional treatment rares and mythics (i.e. those rares and mythics not opened from Collector Booster products) are already being opened at the Play Booster price point. This adds a point to the earlier theory that Play Boosters shouldn’t have a massive effect on the price of individual cards, considering that most cards are already opened by players near a $6-per-pack cost basis. Most isn’t all, however, and now we move to the elephant in the room: Limited. 

Limited, as a format, is completely reliant on players paying for sealed product, and with sealed product going up in price, so too is Limited.

Magic’s player base has significantly expanded in recent years, especially surrounding the Limited and Commander formats, but this doesn’t directly mean that the average player’s pockets have gotten any deeper (quite the contrary, in fact, if you look towards inflation and the broader economy as benchmarks). So, while plenty of Set packs are being opened, there are also plenty of players who purchase Magic product solely through Draft packs. 

These are the players most sensitive to sealed product prices. As such, the cost increase has a very significant chance to price many newer players out of the game, which could backfire significantly and be reflected in higher prices across singles going forwards.

Play Boosters - The Bulk Order Problem

So far, the primary reason identified for a potential increase in single card prices attributable to Play Boosters comes from their interactions with the Limited environment. The secondary reason, however, is universal across any and all players who purchase sealed Magic boxes, especially around set release: Play Booster boxes are going to be more expensive than both Draft Booster boxes and Set Booster boxes, since they contain the full thirty six packs but are priced at the Set Booster level. As we saw earlier, this amounts to a full $40 price increase in most cases. Similar to Limited, this price increase certainly won’t price out the majority of the market, but it will undoubtedly be enough to price out some.  

Wrapping Up 

All in all, the dual problems of increasingly expensive Limited and bulk orders mean that there will be a growing group of players who are purchasing less sealed product, allowing for fewer cards to hit the market. Basic economics holds that lower supply pushes prices higher, so now the only question is how high can it go. I’d keep an eye on the sealed market in the interim if I were you; you never know when anticipation will turn into real price movement. 

Check out these other articles:

New Horizons - Secret Lair Spookydrop 2023 by Matt Grzechnik