Modern Times - Pro Tour: LOTR
Hello readers! While everyone is busy digging into
I should note that by the time this article is posted, the August 7th Modern banned list announcement will have already been made, thus some of the language used herein is highly conditional on the outcome of Monday’s banned list announcement. There’s a chance this piece may read as more of a retrospective.
The One Ring
The eponymous one ring to rule them all! When this artifact was previewed, Modern was ironically the last place people thought it would see play. Today, however, its play is widespread. To name a few decks mainboarding this gem: Amulet Titan, 4-Color Omnath, Mono Green Tron, and Dimir Control. Oh, and just to be clear, it’s being played as a four-of almost always.
Given the widespread play at the top of the meta, it’s no wonder The One Ring is fetching $50 per copy, despite being a guaranteed insert in all LTR bundle products.
So why play The One Ring? How has the card caught on this strong and fast? A few reasons: firstly, it’s a colorless artifact, so anyone and everyone can play it (kind of like
Secondly, when cast, The One Ring guarantees you an extra turn. The “protection from everything” clause in the card’s text is remarkable for a reason not well-discussed: it slows the game down by one turn. To some, such a comment might be obvious, but for a single card to slow the format down just with its ETB effect is unheard of, and has shaken the format to its core. What was yesterday’s Izzet Murktide is today’s Dimir Control (also known as “The One Dimir”).
Finally, because it’s a noncreature artifact, you can tap it for its activated ability immediately the turn you play it, generating instant value at little cost to your life total (or no more costly than fetching or shocking a land into play). Furthermore, the drawback is quite minimal even if the burden counters (the effective cost to use its activated ability) grow too high for your liking. If the life loss from burden counters grows too large, then you can simply play another The One Ring, and use the convenient legendary rule to your advantage to ditch the copy in play that’s dragging you down.
It may be a bold statement to make, but for these reasons along with the ability to land The One Ring as early as turn three, it’s catapulted itself into possibly being the single best all-around card in the format that isn’t a land.
Don’t believe me? Believe the data. Fellow competitive Modern player, content creator, and contributor to the MTG Modern community Anaël Yahi compiled an impressive list of the cards most present at the most recent Pro Tour: Lord of the Rings in Barcelona:
Take note of the numbers on The One Ring (and the card we’re going to talk about next!) The question one may be asking at this point is “should I buy The One Ring?” The price is holding steady at this point, and doesn’t seem to be showing strong movement up or down. Be wary, however, as there’s been a strong argument to be made for banning this card in the Modern format. If this card survived the August 7th banned list announcement, then it’s probably safe to pick up a playset for competitive play. If it doesn’t, then pick up your discounted copy for Commander or other formats!
Orcish Bowmasters
I’ve talked at length about Orcish Bowmasters in my previous article discussing the high-potential Modern playables to come from LTR. Unsurprisingly, Orcish Bowmasters was at the top of my list. Also unsurprisingly, it’s seeing more competitive play than
When this card was previewed, it sat around $30. Today, only a short time later, it’s demanding around $47. Finally topping Ragavan (which sits at around $40 currently). That’s right. The king of pushed Modern creatures has been dethroned by Bowmasters.
So where do things go from here? Depends on two things: cEDH, and (of course) Modern. I highly doubt this card will be hit by the Modern banned list, but if it is, its price will surely tank. If this card gets hit in cEDH, but not in Modern, its price might dip, but not by much. If it’s hit by the banned list in both formats, this becomes a $15 dollar card at most. The possible trajectory of this card’s long-run price is a little too path-dependent at the moment to say whether it’s worth picking up immediately right now. If it survived August 7th, then it’s probably safe to pick up a playset to suit your Modern needs. If it was banned August 7th, then wait until August 28th and see what the Commander Rules Committee has to say. Either way, evaluate your needs for the formats you play, and weigh your financial commitment to this card accordingly.
Delighted Halfling
Delighted Halfling is a delightful card. Seriously, what’s not to love? It adds mana of any color to play legendary spells, including creatures, planeswalkers, and artifacts, and makes those spells uncounterable. One green mana for a 1/2 makes it as serviceable as any other mana dork, but with considerable more upside in the Modern format. Like our other cards discussed today, Delighted Halfling is neither moving up, nor down. Holding steady at $13, it’s tough to gauge whether its price will move.
In terms of cards likely to have been banned, this is not one of them. Delighted Halfling is, as I said, delightful. It does a lot for legendary-heavy decks, including most notably Golgari Yawgmoth and 4-Color Omnath.
The key difference between the two aforementioned decks is that Halfling can be used to play an uncounterable The One Ring in 4-Color Omnath, but not in Golgari Yawgmoth (which does not play The One Ring). This difference also reflects the potential price trajectory of Halfling. If The One Ring gets the ban hammer, then I would expect Delighted Halfling to fall in price a bit as well. If The One Ring is here to stay, and not thrown into WOTC’s equivalent of
At the very least, if you play Golgari Yawgmoth, it’s probably to your benefit to pick up your playset sooner, rather than later. The potential loss from a One Ring banning is likely less than the price appreciation should it stay around and have more time to disseminate itself across other brews in the meta.
| The One Ring | ||
| Orcish Bowmasters | ||
| Delighted Halfling |
Final Thoughts
As I write this piece, I must confess that I cannot predict what Monday will be (and what it currently is now as of the time of this article’s publication). My priors tell me that one Pro Tour is too small of a sample size to make sudden decisions with regards to The One Ring and Orcish Bowmasters in Modern. My guess is that they will not be banned, but will likely have been mentioned in the update this past Monday. Considering we had a full summer of
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Corey Williams
Corey Williams is an Assistant Professor of Economics at Shippensburg University in Shippensburg, Pennsylvania. He considers himself a macroeconometrician with his research body reflecting work in applied macroeconomics and econometrics. Corey is an L1 Judge who started playing Magic around Eighth Edition. He enjoys Modern, Commander, cEDH, and cube drafting. Outside of Magic, he loves running, teaching, and the occasional cult movie.