Why'd That Go Up?

Why did Cauldron Familiar go up this week? 

If you ask most of the Magic players who are online enough, it’s pretty simple if you pay attention to every possible content creator from every format. If you pay less attention, you’ll still get it most of the time. Knowing how Magic works and what else just came out is all you really need to answer that question. If you’re a little less quick on the uptake, you might see if it’s in anything new on EDHREC. If you go to Cauldron Familiar’s page on EDHREC, you’ll see the new commanders that the card is in, and if they’re from the most recent set, it’s really likely that the card is selling out and spiking because of a new commander.

There you have it. Cauldron Familiar is in new Abzan decks based on the food precon, most of them being Sam and Frodo builds. There’s your answer.

Thanks for reading, I’ll see you next week! 

Psych!

Better idea, while I have your attention, why don’t we ask the follow-up question no one ever seems to ask (and it might be because they don’t know to ask it): what’s next? Simply figuring out why a card went up is nice, and if you can say it to someone who didn’t figure it out on their own, if that’s how you farm dopamine in the wild. But I think Cauldron Familiar’s page on EDHREC should be your first stop, not your last.

OK, it need not be your first stop. As we discussed last week, your very first stop should be the Interests page on MTG Stocks. 

Maybe Cauldron Familiar jumps out at you and you wonder why it went up. You haven’t had a chance to look through the LotR precons yet and you don’t know what’s going on. You pop over to EDHREC, see it’s most likely Sam and Frodo, and you have your answer.

That’s Step 1. Step 2 should be figuring out if anything else in that deck could go up. 

Last week we went to EDHREC and did some brute force checking. Almost every spec I’ve had hit in the past like eight years has come from predicting future demand using EDHREC data. However, there’s another tool on that website you might not be aware of, and it could be a huge help if you want to see what else could go up. Let’s talk about Commander Spellbook.

A Page for Combos (Not the Snack)

Not enough people in the community are aware of Commander Spellbook, the insane amount of labor done for it by all volunteers, the scope of the project, or the value of the fruits of their labor. Commander Spellbook is a database of combos. That sounds simple to the point of oversimplification, but it’s true. Every conceivable combo (that couldn’t function if you took a card out. They’re not doing 900 card combos when three cards will work) was entered into the database by a volunteer. Commander Spellbook went through a lot of growth in the past five years, and now that the project has its own website, you should absolutely check it out. So you don’t forget, EDHREC links right to it. 

Highlighted in red is the link to Cauldron Familiar's page on Commander Spellbook. 

If Cauldron Familiar, a card with two printings, one of which was Jumpstart, went up as a result of being in combos in the Sam and Frodo deck, but also Bilbo and Merry and Pippin decks, what other cards are in the combos? Why haven’t those cards gone up? Is it possible they will later? The followup questions here are the ones worth money.

If you check out Cauldron Familiar’s page, you’ll notice that there are a lot of combos on there, but they tend to be in certain color combinations. Depending on what the combo accomplishes, different decks might want different engines, but there isn’t as much diversity as you might think. There are no blue cards on the page, for example. In fact, nearly all of the combo pieces are in Abzan colors. Almost every combo on this page could all be in the same deck. If that’s the case, every other combo piece is worth a look.

Some are a very brief look, and there is a very obvious reason to disregard it. 

Ulvenwald Mysteries never went above a buck, even in foil, and that was before it got reprinted. 

However, you start to see some usual suspects on the page, stars of more than one combo. Some of them look pretty juicy to me. 

As you can see, Clock of Omens is very ripe-looking. The foil price of the M13 reprint is down from a historic high and this second shove it’s likely to get from this new Abzan combo deck (and others). There are two printings, but a long time ago, and the Darksteel version might not even be the best one, given the art. I think there’s a lot of upside, especially for foils, since it’s unlikely to be reprinted in foil if it’s reprinted in a Commander deck. That said, they keep changing the rules, don’t they? All I know for sure is that this used to be more expensive than it is now when it was played less than it is now. I think that’s a situation on the verge of correcting itself. 

The Cat in the Oven

Everything we said about Clock of Omens, including everything I said about the foil price, can be said of Witch's Oven as well. I was joking about this being a super short article earlier, but this one sort of speaks for itself. If you think one will go up but not the other, why? 

I think Altar Of Dementia is a card to watch for now. With all of the new versions sating some of the demand, we’ll need to give people a while to forget this card’s price. You’ll be able to get fairly cheap copies from new sets, and I’ll admit to swapping in retro frame ones for my Tempest copies. Altars will always be good in EDH, but I think that this one in particular should bounce back nicely. Also, observe how the OG Tempest copies shrugged off a few reprints with only minor damage. 

Knowing is Half the Battle

Knowing why a card went up is great, and it pays to pay attention. If you’re smart enough to figure out why a card went up, you’re smart enough to figure out what else could be next, and that’s worth adding a few tools to our repertoire. Thanks for reading, everyone - until next time! 

Check out these other articles:

New Horizons - LOTR Commander by Matt Grzechnik

The Big Things - Arabian Nights Speculation by Harvey McGuinness

Modern Times - Common Value, Private Value, and the Nine by Corey Williams