Over and Under - April 2023

It seems that news just keeps coming in the world of Magic. In our last edition of Over and Under, the hot topics were The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth, Commander Masters, and the Phyrexia: All Will Be One Compleat Edition Bundles. Since then, the market had some time to settle and simmer, only to be tossed around again by the full previews for our next set, March of the Machine.

So, let’s get into it with a recap first, shall we?  

 

Review: Jeweled Lotus

 

Jeweled Lotus was a bit of a complex case when we last took a look at it, and that continues to remain the case. An incredibly expensive card by contemporary Magic standards with extraordinary demand to go along with it, last month’s evaluation saw Jeweled Lotus as just recently having cratered in price due to the news of an upcoming reprint in Commander Masters. Nonetheless, I argued that it was still overpriced, stressing that while the card would likely regain some value over the coming months, its eventual reprint would create a window of opportunity when even more supply is injected into the market. Looking back now and comparing against that analysis, we can see that Jeweled Lotus has begun to reclaim some of its former price glory as the immediate supply dump at the outset of the reprint news has worn off. Now, it's up to us to watch in anticipation of Commander Masters’ final impact on Jeweled Lotus’s value going forwards.

 

Jeweled Lotus
Commander Legends	CardKingdom $99.99	TCGPlayer $90.00
Commander Legends: Extras	CardKingdom $159.99	TCGPlayer $131.00

 

Review: The Enemy-Colored Fetch Lands

 

Last month, I argued that the enemy-colored fetch lands had bottomed in price, while the return of competitive play and massive in-person events offered up the opportunity for the gradual price increases in the long run as more players enter Modern, as well as gravitate towards more efficient Commander manabases. Since then, these fetch lands have remained low in price with very little movement in either direction. Given that there has been neither enough time for a slow and stable growth in the player base nor a massive series of tournaments necessary to spur Modern play, this price stability can be readily expected. It is going to take some time for the enemy-colored fetch lands to begin an upwards trek, but I continue to believe that their current price is not reflective of potential demand for these cards.

 

Arid Mesa	CardKingdom $23.99	TCGPlayer $17.00
Marsh Flats	CardKingdom $18.99	TCGPlayer $14.00
Misty Rainforest	CardKingdom $25.99	TCGPlayer $23.96
Scalding Tarn	CardKingdom $29.99	TCGPlayer $28.48
Verdant Catacombs	CardKingdom $23.99	TCGPlayer $18.05

 

 

With our recap for the month out of the way, it’s time to move on to our overvalued pick of the month.

 

Leeches

 

Ah, Leeches. It’s a unique effect within all of Magic and it’s a reserved list card, so how on Earth could it be overvalued? Well, as much as I love wacky one-off effects and old Magic cards, most of the time that simply isn’t enough of a case to justify the long-term value of a card, and Leeches is a textbook case of this.

Let’s break down each of these two promising characteristics of Leeches to try and understand what has gone wrong and led to its overvaluation. First up, the effect. Leeches is the one-stop answer for removing Poison counters from players. While this may sound promising, a little digging will lead to two problematic revelations. First of all, the majority of competitive Infect decks either run rampant in formats where Leeches can’t be played due to set restrictions (i.e. Modern) or, in the case of the broader strategy-specific problem, the decks are so finely tuned that once you have any Poison counters you will have already lost the game. This means that the play demand for Leeches is incredibly low, as its opportunities for use are slim-to-none, despite being a one-off effect.

Next, the reserved list status of the card. Leeches is from the Homelands set, meaning that print runs in this era were very high. This puts it into the third tier of reserved list cards, which suffer from price swings not due to player nor investor demand, but rather market speculation. As such, the reserved list designation does less to place the card into a category of gradual appreciation and more so within a group of cards highly vulnerable to long-lasting and unpredictable price swings.

 

At first glance, Leeches is a promising pick - it is a reserved list card which has a unique effect. However, when evaluated more critically, it becomes apparent that the current price of Leeches is unsustainable. The card spiked when more Poison counter discourse dominated the Magic community, and is likely to erode back down to pre-spike levels in the months, if not weeks, to follow.

 

Leeches
Homelands	CardKingdom $14.99	TCGPlayer $17.48

 

Next up, it’s time for our undervalued pick of the month.

 

Mystic Remora

 

While it may not be as exciting or as intricate as Leeches, Mystic Remora is a tried-and-true staple of Magic’s largest and most popular format, Commander. Beyond that, the card has also only had three printings, the first of which was its debut decades ago in Ice Age, the second was a Secret Lair Series release, and the third was via the specialty set, Dominaria Remastered. The point here is that Mystic Remora has incredibly high demand and a limited supply. While it may be less universal than that of the fetch lands as discussed last week, that should not be misunderstood so as to cause us to overlook Mystic Remora.

Taking a moment to look more broadly at the market conditions of the card, it is important to be aware of the recency of Mystic Remora’s latest reprint. Dominaria Remastered has only been in circulation for a few months now, and while it is a specialty release, the increased price of booster packs can only do so much to retain the price of the single cards within. As such, it will likely be in the long-run that we see Mystic Remora appreciate to its pre-reprint highs, as opposed to a dramatic near-term swing. Even so, if you’ve never picked up a Mystic Remora, now is the time to do so. The card has bottomed, but it is still as excellent as ever.

 

Mystic Remora (Borderless)
Dominaria Remastered: Extras	CardKingdom $6.49	TCGPlayer $4.68
Secret Lair Series	CardKingdom $21.99	TCGPlayer $20.67
Dominaria Remastered	CardKingdom $6.49	TCGPlayer $4.83
Ice Age	CardKingdom $6.49	TCGPlayer $5.50

 

 

Wrap Up

Since last month, little has happened with our March Over and Under picks, but this was to be expected. Jeweled Lotus has begun to retake some of its initial losses, while the enemy-colored fetch lands remain cheap. In a similar vein, speculation in the aftermath of Phyrexia: All Will Be One led to a surge in the price of Leeches, something which is already showing signs of eroding. Our undervalued pick, Mystic Remora, looks to be a player’s choice for the long run - an incredibly useful card with a potential for noticeable appreciation as market supply dries up.

 

Check out these other articles:  

History, Restapled: Power Creep Before Dollar Creep by Steve Heisler  

New Horizons: March of the Machine by Matt Grzechnik  

Modern Times: Fetchlands by Corey Williams