Weekly Winners 2019 - 10

This week's winners are all Modern related! Speculation into Modern Horizons and new deck tech makes the markets move.

 

#1 Raking Canopy $3.99 (+386%)

 

Our #1 winner this week is quite the mystery. Normally, when a card spikes as hard as Raking Canopy did, there is a lot of chatter and attention for it. Especially considering the characteristics of Raking Canopy: it was a cheap sideboard card that only saw play in some EDH decks. That the card spiked is quite a surprise, so that would usually trigger the interest of players and speculators. But not so much with Raking Canopy.

Modern is the reason Raking Canopy spiked this week. A new deck is being tested and is netting some interesting results. Mono Green Control is the newest kid on the Modern block, and apparently, the coverage on that deck has caused either players or speculators to jump on the available copies of Raking Canopy.

On March 1st Corbin Hosler wrote this article on TCGPlayer on Mono-Green Control. Hosler is a founder of Quiet Speculation, a site with tons of information on card prices and newest trends for everyone interested in viewing Magic as an investment market. The Mono Green deck that he wrote about features 2 Raking Canopy in the Sideboard. Articles on new decks strategies tend to get attention and that is what Hosler's article might have done.

But Hosler was not the first to draw attention to Mono-Green in Modern. On the SCQ IQ, this deck was the runner up. As you can see this is the list and tournament his article is referring to.

Since then, multiple players have been netting results with Mono-Green in Modern on MTGO. The lists people play are not at all set in stone yet, as is visible in the decklist below.

 

#2 Baleful Strix $8.47 (+88.64%)

 

With a new Modern supplemental set on the Horizon, speculation on what card might be in it is running wild. What we do know is that there will be no reprints of cards already in Modern. The set will introduce new cards into Modern, without having to let them cycle through Standard first. That means that Wizards could (re)print cards that have a high power level, without having to be afraid of raking hell for the Standard metagame.

Well then, what cards would be too good for standard, not too powerful for Modern (like Show and Tell, Brainstorm or Force of Will) but too powerful for Standard and is not already in Modern? The possible answer: Baleful Strix.

Some would welcome the card with open arms, while others are strictly opposed against a Modern legal Baleful Strix. The biggest reason against  Baleful Strix is that it gives a big advantage for control-type decks in their matchup against creature heavy aggro decks. Those decks are called 'fair': decks that use creature damage and board domination to win, opposed to Combo or Control decks that limit interaction between players to advance their plans. Personally, I find the label 'fair' a bit confusing, it implies that other decks are 'unfair'; therefore kind of cheating the rules, which is not the case. I get the sentiment from the perspective of players that want to swing their fatties though! Maybe if we use introvert vs. extravert as one and proactive vs. reactive as another axis we might get more insight. It is at least more neutral, compared to a judgemental term like 'fair'.

Using that framework, you could say that reactive-introvert decks have a lot to gain by a modern legal Baleful Strix. Those decks introvertly hatch their plan, hoping to limit interaction with their opponent to reactively countering their spells and protect the game they want to play. With a Baleful Strix in play you can selectively kill your opponent's biggest threat. A resolved Baleful Strix is a big problem for decks that invest a lot of cards (and mana) to find and cast their big, winning creature. You simply know that attacking with it makes you lose it. And since attacking is kind of your thing, that proves to be problematic. Facing a resolved Baleful Strix is almost like the keyword detain or an enchant creature that says: "whenever enchanted creature attacks, destroy it".

Proactive-extravert decks, therefore, have a lot to lose. Instead of getting an interactive game with attacks, blocks, combat spells and an equal trade in combat you are faced by a Baleful Strix, that is just brooding, waiting to kill your best creature, warping combat in his favor. Drawing a card when Baleful Strix hits the battlefield is a huge advantage, compared to other deathtouch creatures. It means that trading Baleful Strix for your opponent's creature is a 2-for-1.

Combo and Control players will have no big problem with Baleful Strix, since it will be in their favor. Also: how hard is it to get rid of a 1/1 flying deathtouch? It seems no biggie, but as a Legacy player I can say that Baleful Strix is hard to get rid of, especially in a meta that makes it hard for aggro decks to play their pro-active 'what you see is what you get'-style games. The printing of Baleful Strix makes that even harder. Chances are that diversity will take a hit as Baleful Strix supports a more reactive meta. Could the impact be so big that Modern becomes 'Legacy Light'?

Many people are willing to bet on Baleful Strix. All copies have increased in price! Baleful Strix will most definitely become an instant Modern staple when printed in Modern Horizons. But that is all what it is: a bet. If it is not printed, you have bought Baleful Strix at an inflated price. But if you did but it and it finds its way into modern you suddenly bought cheap.

It all depends on what Wizards wants with Modern. And if they have realised beforehand what the printing of Baleful Strix might mean for the format!

 

Baleful Strix
Commander 2013	Buy on CardKingdom $7.99
Eternal Masters	Buy on CardKingdom $7.99
Commander 2016	Buy on CardKingdom $5.99
Archenemy: Nicol Bolas	Buy on CardKingdom $5.99

 

#3 Misty Rainforest $75.64 (+10.94%)

 

Scalding Tarn has already breached $100 and is now at the highest point since its reprint. And Misty Rainforest seems to be next. The reason is simple: since there will be no cards reprinted in Modern Horizons, that means that fetch lands won't get a reprint.

For Wizards to reprint Fetch Lands in a standard legal set, the circumstances have to be perfect. Khan's block was a good opportunity as it revolved around clans that all needed three different colors of mana to really work. But the printing of Fetch must not be too powerful when looking at the other Standard legal sets too. Accessing different colors too easily might warp the format in favor of a deck that runs cards that have a two or three color identity as their biggest drawback.

Modern Horizons would have been a particularly good set to reprint Zendikar Fetch. But hey, they excluded them from the set. With this knowledge, buying (or speculating) on fetchland has become a little less risky. People that buy know now that it would take at least a year and probably longer for a new set that bypasses Standard and allows the reprinting of Fetch land. The only way is up for the price. And many people have already jumped on that bandwagon.

I would have loved to see Fetch in Modern Horizons. Having access to something as fundamental as a manabase is extremely important in maintaining a format and advancing its playability for the big public. Duals are Legacy's biggest boon and biggest bane. Without having to sell a limb for Duals, Legacy becomes much, much more accessible for players. Especially for those in possession of a few Modern decks. So my (idle and naive) hopes are for a near-functional reprint of fetchable duals in Modern Horizons.

Misty Rainforest	Buy on  CardKingdom $69.99
Misty Rainforest	Buy on  CardKingdom $64.99
Scalding Tarn	Buy on  CardKingdom $99.99

 

Cheap Pickups

Please note: for our 'record low' we consider the price of the card over the past 7 years. Many cards have been even cheaper (a) decade(s) ago.

 

Tarmogoyf $54.93 - Record low and going down

 

Mutavault $8.95 - Record low and going down

 

Scapeshift $7.45 - Record low and bottomed out

 

Crucible of Worlds $18 - Record low and going down

 

Crucible of Worlds	Buy on  CardKingdom $17.99
Mutavault	Buy on  CardKingdom $9.99
Tarmogoyf	Buy on  CardKingdom $49.99
Scapeshift	Buy on  CardKingdom $8.99