Weekly Winners 2019 - 06

A lot of cards are on the move and we've seen some huge spikes this week. Older cards and cards from the reserved list are moving as well. Nothing really notable concerning the reserved list yet, but we might be seeing the start of a new 'speculation season'.

 

#1 Great Oak Guardian $7.60 (+1800.00%)

 

We have not seen a spike so big in months. Great Oak Guardian gained 1800% in price this week. A clear example of a buyout. Great Oak Guardian is totally out of stock, while not having a lot of demand showing for it. The card does see play in EDH, where it is used as the end of the 'pod chain' in decks commanded by Prime Speaker Vannifar.

Over the past weeks, multiple people have suggested that EDH demand alone can make cards spike. In general, that is true. Any format can have a significant effect on card prices. A notable example of this is the 'old school' format that gained in popularity in 2018. A sudden demand for older cards that were not printed widely (as the player base in the early years was microscopical compared to today) make cards spike, just because of simple supply and demand.

This counts for EDH as well. EDH demand for older cards can make a card spike. Remember that it is an extremely popular format with a bigger player base than Legacy. But for EDH to make both copies of an uncommon spike, just because of organic demand, something particularly amazing needs to happen. Remember, an EDH player only needs one copy of a card.

There is organic demand for Great Oak Guardian! But not enough to make the card (that was reprinted too!) spike this hard. One or more speculators must have concluded that it was a great target to buy out (it is). A good finisher in a popular EDH deck, that just costs $0.30. These guys can turn a profit with a well-organized buyout.

The $7.60 price is insane for Great Oak Guardian; don't expect it to stick. Great Oak Guardian is not good enough for Legacy or Vintage and it is not Modern or Standard legal. That just leaves EDH. And only a continous high demand and the will to pay top dollar for this uncommon will make this $7+ price stick.

 

#2 Cold Storage $8.95 (+621.77%)

 

Cold Storage is not on the reserved list! That might be your first thought when you see a card from Tempest spike this hard. Interestingly, Cold Storage is an example of EDH demand causing an organic spike. The things I have explained above apply to Cold Storage.

The card is pretty low-powered and mostly uninteresting for players. Up until today you would find it in bulkbins and old shoeboxes at the local LGS or thrift shop. You might even hit yourself in the head for giving away boxes of bulk with multiple copies of Cold Storage in it. This is relevant because it isn't a card people tend to buylist at card stores. Which means: a low supply and a low demand. Only sellers that list every card they own will have it available right away. When demand increases a card like that gets sold out pretty quickly.

Demand for Cold Storage is up because of a new commander, printed in Ravnica Allegiance: Rakdos, the Showstopper. You can hide your own creatures with Cold Storage so you can get extra advantage out of your commander. Besides this deck, Cold Storage sees play in EDH decks commanded by Trostani Discordant. In that deck you try to make as many creatures blink (removing them from the battlefield to return to it a.s.a.p.) and keep triggering 'enter the battlefield' abilities.

Do note that Cold Storage's market price is only creeping up slowly. The current price will probably not stick as people will start selling or trading their copies.

 

Cold Storage	Buy on  CardKingdom $3.99
Trostani Discordant	Buy on  CardKingdom $2.99
Rakdos, the Showstopper	Buy on  CardKingdom $1.49

 

#3 Circuitous Route $2.44 (+388%)

 

Our #3 winner is the most interesting one this week! Circuitous Route is part of the Four-Color Gates deck in Standard. But that deck is not particularly popular. On both our site and on MTGTop8.com; there are just a handful of decks listed. MTGGoldfish has more decks on file.

All in all, the demand for competitive standard does not warrant the spike of a recently printed and widely available uncommon. But not only Circuitous Route gained value this week. Other cards from the Gates deck are spiking as well. You can check this out yourself on the Ravnica Allegiance set page. Be sure to enable the extended view and sort by % gain in the past week.

Just current Standard demand might drive this spike, but I'm not convinced. The gates deck is popular in MTGA and (without Nexus of Fate) pretty budget to buy in paper. We have no idea yet how MTGA play will affect paper prices. It might be logical to expect that there will be no correlation at all between MTGA and Paper. MTGA does not allow players to trade and you buy cards with wildcards. So all cards are the same price. No real economy.

But maybe new players are buying their favorite MTGA deck in paper as well and bring it to their local FNM. MTGA sure got me interested in playing Standard and I myself are playing with the idea to buy my MTGA deck in paper, to play with my friends in real life and on FNM. Playing with laptops (and Cybey and I have tried) when you get together is just not the same thing.

Again, this is all just a hunch. Please let me know what you think! Are you buying your MTGA deck in paper? Do you see other people doing this? Do people play BO1 standard on FNM? Please share your ideas and stories on Reddit or Twitter: @MTGPeter.

Dazzling Lights
Guilds of Ravnica	Buy on CardKingdom $0.25

 

Cheap Pickups

Please note: for our 'record low' we consider the price of the card over the past 7 years. Many cards have been even cheaper (a) decade(s) ago.

 

Sneak Attack $25.26 - Record low and bottomed out

 

Thoughtseize $23.58 - Record low and dwindling in price

 

Tarmogoyf $85.42 - Record low & dwindling in price

 

Thoughtseize	Buy on  CardKingdom $29.99
Tarmogoyf	Buy on  CardKingdom $89.99
Sneak Attack	Buy on  CardKingdom $25.99