How the Holidays Affect Magic Prices

Happy holidays, everyone! The year’s just about over, and with it comes a flurry of gift exchanges. Forgive me for stating the obvious, but that’s a lot of gifts going on the market, and a lot of gifts that have to be bought. So, when it comes to Magic – exactly the kind of recreational consumer good that gift givers flock to during the holidays – what does the holiday season mean for prices? Let’s take a look.

Holidays - Supply Side

First off, let’s dive into how all the shelves are going to be stocked. During the holidays, two types of products are primarily advertised as gift candidates: very new products, and languishing old stock. 

New products advertised this way are typically the newest available and often see a small sale discount, but this doesn’t actually translate to a significant dip in price because the discount is applied to the already-inflated prices which correspond to just about any and all newly released products. Examples of this include discounts on Foundations introductory products, such as the Beginner Box and Starter Collection. 

As far as significant discounts go, for those you need to look at old stock. Magic hasn’t done an official Amazon Black Friday dump in a while, but when these were popular a few years ago the products discounted were never the new, popular sets – these were the leftover boxes that might as well have been a tax loss otherwise.

This dual approach to holiday sales leaves a pretty noticeable gap in the center - popular (or semi-popular) products from roughly the past two years. You won’t see Modern Horizons 3 or The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth on discount anywhere, and that's because – comparatively speaking – they won't see a new wave of supply hitting the market.

Holidays - Demand Side

On the demand side of the holidays, attention usually rises in a trend that’s correlated with release date, rather than the bifurcated approach with which sales operate. This means that, despite old stock seeing the highest discounts, they often see a smaller bump in demand than that of the not-discounted middle-aged sets, and an even lesser bump in comparison to the most recent sets.

This sliding scale is, in part, because of the recency bias that comes with purchasing goods of just about any sort. Old stock often gains a reputation as “less-than” because it is seen as leftovers, regardless of however good the base product line is. This reverses trend gradually as supply thins out and the awe that comes with severe scarcity kicks in. But as far as the broader market is concerned these scarce products aren’t usually the ones with a significant change in demand. Instead, consumers look for a balance between price and novelty; the cheapest presents aren’t necessarily the most appealing, just as the most expensive aren’t necessarily the most frequently purchased.

Balancing Out

Now that we know what sellers are doing and how consumers are coming to market, we can put the two together and anticipate both the short and long term consequences of the holiday period. Overall, it comes down to one primary trend: short term volatility, long-term consolidation.

Short term volatility occurs in the immediate holiday period (usually the end of November through to the New Year) because of rapid aligning of consumer spending increases inherent to the holiday period (i.e. gift giving) with the change in prices due to sale goods. The result is a jagged race to the bottom, as stores compete with one another on the open market to offer the timeliest and cheapest prices. These aren’t sales meant to last – these are meant to maximize profit in a short timespan at the cost of individual unit value. 

After the holiday period, prices begin to correct as retailers remove sales from the market. Rather than products naturally appreciating, the artificial depreciation period is abruptly ended, bringing prices back up. This doesn’t automatically return the market to its pre-holiday levels, however, as two significant changes are still in effect: supply has plummeted due to increased purchasing in the previous thirty days, and demand has cooled off. As such, while prices were quick to move in volatile shifts in the month before, the period after the holidays is traditionally marked by minimal price movements (if any), but those that do occur are typically reflective of a gradual appreciation. Retailers aren’t willing to dip back into holiday pricing levels, and as such any new sales will be at the pre-holiday floor, but now with a much shallower market, creating positive pressure for prices in the long term.

Wrap Up

The holiday time may only come once a year, but it does come every year, and that kind of clockwork market event can be incredibly important to factor into pricing decisions. December is a chaotic month for retailers, but January is often as quiet as it gets. 

Further Reading:

New Horizons Year In Review