Checking in with Karlov Manor - Has the Set Rebounded?

When Murders at Karlov Manor ("MKM") released in February 2024, the set rang alarm bells immediately. Not only was there extra attention on MKM due to the sunsetting of Draft and Set Boosters so as to make room for Play Boosters, but so too was the flavor and power level of the set widely considered to be a failure on release. For a myriad of reasons, players weren’t happy with MKM – single and sealed prices tanked, sealed turnout was diminished, and attention shifted to Magic’s next release much quicker than with the average set. 

However, a lot has happened since then. Nearly half a year has passed, new sets have come and gone, and overlooked single cards have started to see new play. So, how is Murders at Karlov Manor doing today? Let’s take a look.

The Sealed Market

First off, we need to talk about Play Boosters, because the story of MKM isn’t an honest one until you understand how significantly the shift in price points from a Draft Booster Box to a Play Booster Box influenced this set’s reception. 

Think back for a moment to the world of Commander Masters – a great set full of great cards, bogged down on release by a crushing price point that pushed most players out of the market and even made Magic’s biggest buyers turn their noses in disdain. If the price was more reasonable, closer to Masters set prices of releases gone by – Double Masters, for example – odds are this set would have sold (at release) significantly better. As it stands, Commander Masters atrophied on shelves for months after release, and a similar thing happened with Murders at Karlov Manor. 

While an argument can be made that the wider Magic market has been trained to buy ever more expensive products, as seen by the significant shift of players away from Draft Boosters and towards Set Boosters, there’s no escaping the fact that the existence of a cheaper option is going to set the tone for the market. Draft Boosters might not have had serialized cards in them, but they were still a hot-ticket item that players and markets could look to for an introductory price point. By eliminating that option, Wizards raised the de facto price for Magic without actually raising the power level of the contents. Yes, the average Play Booster has more rares in it than a Draft Booster, but buying more of a set is very different than buying a more powerful set, a categorical difference which has been the historical differentiator in price points across Magic products. 

This shift in the baseline exacerbated the initial discontent with which MKM was received, and it’s a contributing factor as to why prices on sealed product fell as much as they did and as quickly as they did. Not only was the set less than stellar, but so too did it come with a mandated price hike.

As much as this spells doom and gloom for a set upon release, it’s important to recognize that a release price point isn’t the end-all of a Magic product’s story. In the near half-year that MKM has been in stores, prices on all version of sealed product – Collector and Play – have stabilized and are showing the beginning signs of an uptick.

Overall, the Magic market is in a stronger position than it was when MKM released, and it would be wrong to discount that from our understanding of why MKM is doing better, but beyond just broad market correlation there is a second factor underpinning this renewed success: asset correction. A high initial price, coupled with high initial player discontent, creates a dramatic reaction in the short-term, something which can readily lead to a race to the bottom as sellers offload supply. Now that the race is over, MKM has started to correct itself – climbing ever so carefully out of the hole which was dug for it back in February. It’ll be a long process for sure, far from the speed with which its initial price collapsed, but if you keep your eye on TCGPlayer you’ll notice that drip by drip, box by box, things are looking better.

The Singles Market

When it comes to the singles market, MKM is doing about as well as most other Standard-legal sets by their 6-month mark. The set has its fair share of standout mythics and rares, with Vein Ripper currently being the most expensive card overall. Other than that there isn’t much to say, except for one important exception: the land cycle. 

Unlike most other Standard sets, MKM has a full ten dual-color lands in its rare slot, rather than the traditional breakdown of just five. Not all of these are seeing play everywhere to the tune of Shocklands or the like, but boy oh boy are these popular nonetheless. Seeing play in formats as powerful as Legacy and cEDH, the ability to be fetched up thanks to their basic land types as well as the card selection granted off of Surveil is not to be ignored. 

Initially, these lands were the subject of much skepticism, with players and commentators debating whether or not they were really that much better than the Temples from the original Theros block. Well, time has passed, and the verdict is in: they are significantly better. Similar to MMK’s set-wide apathy upon release and subsequent stabilization, this sudden change in opinion has led to price corrections for many of the lands in the cycle, while those that haven’t yet experienced a substantial increase are at the very least stable in price. 

Wrap Up

In the long term, the positive pressure from singles is exactly the type of thing which will aid in MKM’s recovery. Having a full ten lands in the rare slot, plus some other powerful mythics and rares, will provide long-term interest in the set, insulating the sealed price against further erosion. The only question left is how long will the set’s release memory continue to haunt it before it can fully embrace a more positive trajectory?

Further Reading:

When Magic Products Fail