Checking in with The Big Score
It’s been just under a month since
Main set OTJ cards have bounced around and settled into their post-release prices, with the majority fairing cheaper than their prerelease prices (as per usual). Similarly, the primary bonus sheet for the set, the
What Is The Big Score?
Originally designed as a follow-up mini set in the same vein as
So far, these new cards have seen varied success across formats.
What’s Going On with The Big Score?
If you’ve been keeping up with the MTGStocks daily Interest page, you’ve likely noticed a pretty startling trend: day by day, cards from The Big Score have been spiking in value.
For some of these cards, this is because they’ve become breakout tournament all-stars, a-la Simulacrum Synthesizer, which sees play in everything from Standard to Legacy. For others, however, this trend seems a bit more…speculative.
Overall, this is a pretty classic case of a run in the market sparked more from supply-side pressure than actual demand. Yes, there are true gems hidden amongst the rubble, but by and large the majority of The Big Score isn’t necessary for most casual or competitive formats. Interesting cards, for sure, and I’d say that a lot of them have homes somewhere, but make no mistake – these thirty cards certainly aren’t unanimously being discovered as format all-stars.
Cards from The Big Score are a lot harder to get than the rest of Outlaws of Thunder Junction – 18% might not seem like too small a number, but in the grand scheme of things it's a huge shift from conventional print runs. This is especially pronounced for cards that are actually being considered as all-stars; being relegated to the List slot means that there are comparatively very few copies on the market, allowing prices to move much faster than for other, wide-scale print run cards. This pressure is bleeding outwards into the rest of The Big Score, as the market gobbles up cheap copies of currently “undiscovered” cards in the hopes that some future synergy is developed. The result: widespread price inflation.
Where is The Big Score Going?
So, how long can this pressure last? Well, fortunately we already have an answer to that one, and it comes from the aforementioned Grand Abolisher.
Unlike most other cards in The Big Score, Grand Abolisher is part of the reprint roster, alongside
This group of cards pre-sold at high prices, released, failed in the competitive arena, and then had their prices tank. Now, like other standard rares, they’re trending sideways at the moment, but unlike standard rares they still suffer from the limited print run. So, they’re a bit more volatile, but overall they just haven’t hit an upward stride yet.
This leaves us with two conclusions: one for the cards that have already spiked, and another for the weaker part of The Big Score. As for the post-speculation cards, it’s not far off to bet that they’ll have a future a lot like Grand Abolisher. They might not all have the same competitive demand as Grand Abolisher, but there’s certainly a devoted base which is holding on to copies in the hopes of future gains – until a reprint comes to slash them back. Think back to pre-Commander Masters Grand Abolisher, when it was trending near thirty dollars. That’s where we are right now with the ‘good’ cards from The Big Score.
As for the weaker section, this is where things get a bit more interesting. In the short term, I wouldn’t be too surprised to see significant gains here. People are experimenting, and in large numbers, so any sudden spark could send a $1 card to $10. We’ve already seen it in The Big Score, and there’s no reason it can’t happen again. The staples have already been picked, but anything can be a pet card in a casual deck. In the long run, however, these are likely to fall back to being cheaper picks. Early strength, post release, tends to correlate with a card’s long-term success (barring new synergies/bannings), so don’t take this volatility to be a true indicator of value.
Wrap Up
I hope this article has been of help in navigating the strange goings-on of our Interests page over at MTGStocks this month. It’s rare for a whole set (or mini-set, I should say) of cards to start moving in a positive direction after release, so when it does happen it’s certainly worth taking a deeper dive. If you’ve got cards from The Big Score that have spiked, I’d say the safe bet is to take your winnings while they’re hot – the supply crunch underlying the swing is a real one, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be exaggerated.
Further Reading:
Potential Commander Staples from Outlaws of Thunder Junction
Harvey McGuinness is a student at Johns Hopkins University who has been playing Magic since the release of Return to Ravnica. After spending a few years in the Legacy arena bouncing between Miracles and other blue-white control shells, he now spends his time enjoying Magic through CEDH games and understanding the finance perspective. He also writes for the Commander's Herald.
