Checking in with The Big Score

It’s been just under a month since Outlaws of Thunder Junction’s (OTJ) full paper release, and since then the market for this set – and especially all the mini-sets it contains – has really put the ‘wild’ in ‘wild west.’ 

Main set OTJ cards have bounced around and settled into their post-release prices, with the majority fairing cheaper than their prerelease prices (as per usual). Similarly, the primary bonus sheet for the set, the Outlaws of Thunder Junction: Breaking News slot, has also settled into a stable pattern, with non-foil and traditional foils stabilizing in line with main set trends. Conversely, the textured foil variants for these cards dipped and then rebounded, showing us that the market seems to have underestimated at least one special part of this OTJ. But the real sleeper has been Outlaws of Thunder Junction: The Big Score, and boy oh boy did the market get this one wrong. So, what’s going on with this second special slot, and where is the market going next?

What Is The Big Score?

Originally designed as a follow-up mini set in the same vein as March of the Machine: The Aftermath, The Big Score is a list of thirty mythics. Appearing in roughly 18% of Play Boosters (as well as Collector Boosters at a slightly greater rate), The Big Score shares a booster pack slot with OTJ’s iteration of The List, which itself is comprised of the full thirty cards from The Big Score and ten cards from the newest cycle of Special Guests. Almost all of the cards from The Big Score are new, with some exceptions, the most notable of which being Grand Abolisher (a card we’ll come back to later).

So far, these new cards have seen varied success across formats. Simulacrum Synthesizer, initially an overlooked card during preview season, has exploded in success across formats, while others range from Commander darlings, such as Vaultborn Tyrant, to currently unplayed duds, such as Territory Forge. That being said, even the less-than-spectacular members of The Big Score have been seeing some impressive movements in the market.

What’s Going On with The Big Score?

If you’ve been keeping up with the MTGStocks daily Interest page, you’ve likely noticed a pretty startling trend: day by day, cards from The Big Score have been spiking in value.

For some of these cards, this is because they’ve become breakout tournament all-stars, a-la Simulacrum Synthesizer, which sees play in everything from Standard to Legacy. For others, however, this trend seems a bit more…speculative. 

Overall, this is a pretty classic case of a run in the market sparked more from supply-side pressure than actual demand. Yes, there are true gems hidden amongst the rubble, but by and large the majority of The Big Score isn’t necessary for most casual or competitive formats. Interesting cards, for sure, and I’d say that a lot of them have homes somewhere, but make no mistake – these thirty cards certainly aren’t unanimously being discovered as format all-stars. 

Cards from The Big Score are a lot harder to get than the rest of Outlaws of Thunder Junction – 18% might not seem like too small a number, but in the grand scheme of things it's a huge shift from conventional print runs. This is especially pronounced for cards that are actually being considered as all-stars; being relegated to the List slot means that there are comparatively very few copies on the market, allowing prices to move much faster than for other, wide-scale print run cards. This pressure is bleeding outwards into the rest of The Big Score, as the market gobbles up cheap copies of currently “undiscovered” cards in the hopes that some future synergy is developed. The result: widespread price inflation.

Where is The Big Score Going?

So, how long can this pressure last? Well, fortunately we already have an answer to that one, and it comes from the aforementioned Grand Abolisher.

Unlike most other cards in The Big Score, Grand Abolisher is part of the reprint roster, alongside Torpor Orb and Rest in Peace. As such, it faces no such constraint on supply; plenty of other copies exist on the market for this card, from Magic 2012 (M12) through to Commander Masters. So, when it was released, Grand Abolisher faced a dent in its price due to the ‘extra’ copies which were newly available. The closest comparison in terms of price behavior, albeit for entirely different reasons, is the as-of-yet unspeculated group of The Big Score cards, such as Territory Forge, which haven’t seen success anywhere yet.

This group of cards pre-sold at high prices, released, failed in the competitive arena, and then had their prices tank. Now, like other standard rares, they’re trending sideways at the moment, but unlike standard rares they still suffer from the limited print run. So, they’re a bit more volatile, but overall they just haven’t hit an upward stride yet.

This leaves us with two conclusions: one for the cards that have already spiked, and another for the weaker part of The Big Score. As for the post-speculation cards, it’s not far off to bet that they’ll have a future a lot like Grand Abolisher. They might not all have the same competitive demand as Grand Abolisher, but there’s certainly a devoted base which is holding on to copies in the hopes of future gains – until a reprint comes to slash them back. Think back to pre-Commander Masters Grand Abolisher, when it was trending near thirty dollars. That’s where we are right now with the ‘good’ cards from The Big Score. 

As for the weaker section, this is where things get a bit more interesting. In the short term, I wouldn’t be too surprised to see significant gains here. People are experimenting, and in large numbers, so any sudden spark could send a $1 card to $10. We’ve already seen it in The Big Score, and there’s no reason it can’t happen again. The staples have already been picked, but anything can be a pet card in a casual deck. In the long run, however, these are likely to fall back to being cheaper picks. Early strength, post release, tends to correlate with a card’s long-term success (barring new synergies/bannings), so don’t take this volatility to be a true indicator of value.

Wrap Up

I hope this article has been of help in navigating the strange goings-on of our Interests page over at MTGStocks this month. It’s rare for a whole set (or mini-set, I should say) of cards to start moving in a positive direction after release, so when it does happen it’s certainly worth taking a deeper dive. If you’ve got cards from The Big Score that have spiked, I’d say the safe bet is to take your winnings while they’re hot – the supply crunch underlying the swing is a real one, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be exaggerated.  

Further Reading:

Safe Bets as CEDH Grows

Potential Commander Staples from Outlaws of Thunder Junction