When Magic Products Fail

When looking to buy a Magic product, we often talk about value deals – opportunities to gain in the long run thanks to a discount in the market. Maybe it's reserved list cards that have taken a hit due to broader economic uncertainties, or staple Modern cards fresh off that year’s reprint set. They may seem different, but they share a key quality: they’re all positive value discounts. The lower prices don’t reflect the quality of the product, but more so the quality of the market. This doesn’t cover all our bases, however. What about negative value discounts – the deals that appear when an otherwise healthy market turns in disapproval? Well, I’m here to tell you that there is often more than meets the eye in these cases, opportunities to make some money if you play it well.

Before diving any deeper, I want to first preface this by saying that this article is going to focus on traditional Magic products – Standard sets, specialty sets, etc. I’m not going to get into ancillary products like Magic 30th Anniversary Edition. I’ve written about that at length before and, suffice it to say, we need to treat those as a completely different category, both of product and of launch failure case study. They’re too distinct to be lumped in with the rest of the negative discount market, and doing so would risk misevaluating opportunities. Alright, with that being said, let’s get into it.

Category One – Price Failures

Our first group of failures are products which are otherwise fine – excellent, even – but crash on release due to their exorbitant price tags, as compared against player expectations. An excellent example of this is Commander Masters, a product which saw both single and sealed prices crash rapidly in the days and weeks following its release. Fortunately, as with most things in life, the key to winning out in these cases comes in the long run, although not necessarily as long as you might think.

The thing about price failures is that their collapse is more often than not a knee-jerk reaction on the market’s behalf, one fueled by emotion in the consumer base. As such, these products are also some of the quickest to rebound – all they need is the chance to sit on shelves for a bit and move through the system. Eventually, reactions cool and emotions temper, and with this comes an influx of capital as buyers return to the market.

So, how should we handle picking up these products? The best way to do it is to try and pick up your target asset – either singles or sealed boxes – once the turbulence of the downswing has begun to settle. Prices will likely continue to fall bit by bit, but once the main event is over then odds are it’s a safe time to enter the market. After this, it’s all just a waiting game. Looking back to Commander Masters, we can already see boxes begin to swing towards the upside. They may not be at unofficial MSRP levels, but they are trending higher, and all that matters is that our purchase price is below the current price.

Category Two – Power Level Failures

Our second category is mostly an addendum to our first, and as such doesn’t warrant quite as detailed a discussion. But it’s nonetheless important to separate out thanks to its comparably different long-run price dynamics, as well as its cause of failure. These are the sets which collapse due to disappointment with the power level of the cards within, and as such a broad disinterest from the player base – both casual and competitive.

A perfect – and unfortunate – example of this is Dragon's Maze. When I think of that set, I think of three cards: Maze's End, Blood Baron of Vizkopa, and Voice of Resurgence (plus its token), and only the latter two were ever in serious demand. Everything else in the set was tossed aside as insignificant to the larger metagame, meaning players had little interest in picking up the product. This disappointment was further compounded by the other products available – at least Gatecrash had Shocklands, while Return to Ravnica was welcomed with open arms. The substitute goods – the other sets on the shelf – were just better, so money went there instead. But what does this mean for prices?

Like price failures, power level failures also face a rapid race to the bottom. However, rather than there being a floor price at which point the market turns because of legitimate interest in the product itself, the demand just isn’t nearly as strong, which means that the stabilization and uptick periods take much longer to settle in. In short, you’ll still see prices fall and then rise, but the magnitude of the uptick is smaller and doesn’t settle in until much later in the product’s life cycle.

So, what do we do here? Focus on sealed product. The reason for the price collapse was because of lackluster singles in the first place, so take the market’s advice and steer clear. Sealed product, meanwhile, trends up due to the basic force of attrition. Regardless of what’s in the box, there’s only so many left unopened.

Category Three – Thematic Failures

Finally, we come to our most recent case – thematic failures, as highlighted by Murders at Karlov Manor. Like power level failures, these products are rejected primarily by the player base for game reasons. However, instead of players not wanting to use the cards because they are weak, these sets fail because players don’t like the theme. This is the most subjective of the failure reasons – after all, one player may love murder mystery while another despises it, but enough players’ collective disinterest in a set can significantly affect a release.

Interestingly, thematic failures blend the timescales of functional failures and price failures, resulting in a split as to the price dynamics of their constituent products. On one hand, the singles in these sets tend to plummet rapidly, only for the “good cards” discovered by the player base to increase substantially shortly thereafter. On the other hand, the sealed product for these sets often follows the long-run behaviors of functional failures, given the continued apathy for the player base. So, purchase accordingly – keep an eye on the singles market in the months following release, then take your time snagging boxes as things solidify.

Wrap Up

I hope this article has helped you with thinking about buying Magic boxes – and singles – that are on discount going forward. Are prices falling because players don’t like the theme, the prices, or the cards themselves? The answer to this will shape how the market plays out, and – if you buy smart – you can make you some money along the way.

Further Reading:

Is Standard Relevant to Magic Card Prices Again?

Shocklands and the Ramifications of Staple Reprints in Magic

Speculating on the Commander Banlist