The Not-So-Art of Speculating on MTG

Welcome back to Through the Lens! Hopefully you were able to land some good scores on the Dino-enablers I talked about in my Dinosaurs and Bulk article. While Otepec Huntmaster did see a reprint in a Commander deck, we went four for four in dodging foil reprints for all the cards mentioned. Good job us. And if you were able to snag some on the cheap, congrats! 

Speaking of “on the cheap,” that brings us to the focus of today’s article: the dangerous world of the Magic: the Gathering speculation. 

Whether you’re hoping to net a great return, a cheap playset, or a foil version for your Commander deck, there’s usually a window of opportunity to get the cards you want at the price you want them.  

Let’s get after it. 

The Many Sides of Card Speculation

The Strength of Information

One of the best assets at your disposal when it comes to speccing on MTG are the MTGO decklist dumps. A lot of information can be gleaned from these lists, and can often be the harbinger of a card’s eventual rise into the rarified air of “Format Staple.” At our fingertips as well are the many Discord servers and forums dedicated to individual formats and decks therein. 

Let’s take Questing Druid, for example. In early to mid October it started to pop up in Modern deck list dumps. People do like to experiment, of course, and the card managed to find a home in numerous 5-0 lists across multiple formats. At the time, it was hovering around $2 to $3. I don’t know about you, but if I see a newly printed, Standard-legal card showing up in 5-0 Modern AND Legacy lists, I strike right then.

Savvy, degenerate speculators know to comb these lists early for the chance to catch cards at their cheapest. I personally picked up only one playset (mostly because I’m scared), at around $8.50. A playset will cost you double that today. If you managed to spec in early and get out at the top (around $8 to $9). then you were really winning. I’m still winning, though!

I used Questing Druid as an example, because it sort of hits all the notes that you want to see when discussing speculation vehicles. It’s a rare, it started low, was maybe playable, and eventually found its way into decks from Legacy to Pioneer. Turns out it’s 100% playable. It spiked high, dipped, then stabilized at twice the price before it spiked. The perfect spec. 

A Matter of Skill

Turns out, being good at Magic: The Gathering can really matter when it comes to evaluating what cards to speculate on. If you’re like me, then I wouldn’t use your game-skill knowledge to dictate what you target. But, if you’re actually good at the game, then by all means, reward yourself! 

$5.24$5.49

$12.46$16.99

Hundreds of new cards are injected into the Magic card pool every year, and it’s up to the players to figure out which ones should make it into decks. The sooner you can identify a card becoming a staple or format powerhouse, the lower your entry point will be when deciding to buy a single playset - or 50 copies to sell later. 

Pay Attention to Type

Instant vs. sorcery, Goblin vs Orc. These things can be the difference between a successful speculation and a dud. When it comes to creatures, keep in mind which creature types Wizards has heavily supported over the years, and which types have been left to durdle in abject misery. 

$23.20$22.99

$26.95$24.99

Foils and the Power of Mana Value 

We all know that foil flipping is probably the most dangerous form of speculation in today’s hyper-printed, blinged-out-card-version environment. They’re harder to move, and sit in one’s inventory for longer. But! High risk, high reward, right? Perhaps. Let’s discuss the curious case of Gurmag Angler as an example. 

Affecting the game state for as little mana as possible has always been a high priority in the competitive Magic scene, and for a time our fishy friend was one of the best. But times changed, Mr. Angler fell out of favor, and with his fall went his once great foil price tag. Time Spiral: Remastered reprint aside, Gurmag Angler’s original printing enjoyed a relatively high foil multiplier for years until reprints and power-creep pushed it out of the spotlight.

However, had you gotten in for cheap after it was printed, you would have had plenty of opportunity to exit at a decent price. Still, for every Gurmag Angler, there’s a Sultai Scavenger waiting in the wings to betray you.  

Opportunity is Rare. Success is Rarer.

It goes without saying that speculating on any MTG card is, at its core, a gamble. Knowledge compounds with each new set (sellers know what to look for, and are loath to repeat their same mistakes), so the chance to find those instances where your 30 copies of foil Ego Drain will give you great returns are few. (Surely foil Ego Drain will be worth $0.50 one day, right? Right?)

Look at Gargantuan Leech. Pre-order sellers were not messing around with foils, trying to capitalize on the success of Gurmag Angler. Now that the Leech is at the bottom, I could see entering in for a decent handful. Caves will no doubt see support in the future, and one-mana 5/5s are pretty good.

In Conclusion

If anything, I hope this article makes you stop and think next time before you pull the trigger on a purchase. Buying a playset to play with is one thing, but snagging 100 copies of a card to flip is another. Use the many tools at your disposal to make the best decisions you can, and always, always speculate responsibly - especially with foils (Collector Booster packs, anyone?) 

Best of luck to you.

Happy Holidays, and thanks for reading!

Further Reading:

Magic Cards to Buy Now - Dragons, Goblins, Pirates, and Elves