Weekly Winners 2021 - 07

An interesting week, again driven by old card speculation and EDH. But we also have a special edition of Cheap Pickups, with a new way to look at cards that are (still) cheap pickups, but might go up later.

Like every week, just in time for (digital) FNM, I'll now tell you about the cards that will be the talk of the (digital) town tonight!

 

See something interesting in the world of card prices? Be sure to pitch me a tweet: @MTGPeter

 

#1 Shivan Dragon $29.99 (+1019.03%)

 

Not even in my wildest dreams (or nightmares) did I ever expect to ever see Fifth Edition Shivan Dragon spiking this hard. And it is totally crazy that it actually happened. Over the past weeks we've reported that there is an increase in unusual spikes. Cards that have no real business being expensive suddenly spike to bizarre (and frankly: unrealistic) price points. The only reason for these spikes seems to be that the cards are old, and 'classic'. And Shivan Dragon fits that profile perfectly.

A few weeks ago I also mused about the question where this would end. I joked a bit about Fallen Empires and Homelands, but it seems that reality is crazier than fantasy as this trend now seems to include Fifth Edition too. It could be a fluke, a one-off. But it just might not be.

To be honest, I do feel some reservations even mentioning Shivan Dragon, let alone declaring it the #1 winner this week. But that is borne out of a sentiment that cards that see almost no real play, that are reprinted many, many times and come from sets that are not that old should not be at a $30 price level. This is the clear result of a speculative buyout, and I don't like covering those. On the other hand: this is a trend you should know about.

Now for something completely different. If you check Shivan Dragon's market price, you'll see that it has not moved up at all. That means that nobody is buying this card for $30 at this time. The few stores that have any copies left offer them for that insane price tag. I'm really wondering if this speculative tactic is going to pay off. Is the market price going to move up? Are the stores going to buy the cards back at a higher price point? If so, this trend will probably continue and spread further to more recent sets. What will be the next goal post? All old card framed sets?

Edit: I got a message over Reddit of someone who may have an alternative explanation for this particular edition of Shivan Dragon going up in price. Apparently on about half of the printings of Shivan Dragon from Fifth Edition have their copyright dates in Portugese rather than English. It could be the card was targeted by a buyout to try to find these misprints. The same misprint can happen on Manabarbs, Ironclaw Curse, Game of Chaos, and Inferno.

 

Shivan Dragon
Fifth Edition	CardKingdom $5.49	TCGPlayer $29.99

 

#2 Sapphire Medallion $92.75 (+228.43%)

 

Equally surprising and interesting is our #2 winner this week: Sapphire Medallion. We've seen this card spiking over the past years more often and every time it does, it spikes harder than before. This is one of those cards that you are either familiar with of totally oblivious about. It is not a particularly well-known or widely played card, but it is a card that is hard to forget once you've played with or against it.

At first glance, Sapphire Medallion could seem a bit underwhelming. It makes your blue spells only cheaper (so not , mind you) and for a casting cost of that does not seem that good. You don't see yourself countering Sapphire Medallion when your opponent plays one, now do you?

In the right shell, Sapphire Medallion can push mono-blue decks into overdrive. Especially once you get to resolve High Tide (Merfolk). Or even better: when you get to resolve several copies of it in one turn. It gives you so much mana, you can easily combo out whatever you had planned. For this reason Sapphire Medallion gets included in Legacy High Tide decks sometimes. Although it is not a deck that is widely played currently.

Sapphire Medallion spiked this week because of a new commander: Orvar, the All-Form. We've covered another spike related to that commander last week. With Orvar, the All-Form you can copy spells. And wouldn't it be great if you can get your hands on cards like Sapphire Medallion and copy them, and together with Sapphire Medallion to gain a huge amount of mana. With that mana you can play and copy more permanents, cast more draw spells and draw the tech you need to win the game.

But lets stray away from High Tide (Merfolk), since it is not the only (or main) reason that Sapphire Medallion spiked. It is because of the potential combo with Whim of Volrath. But to make this thing happen, you do need to have two Sapphire Medallions in play. You can use Orvar, the All-Form to make that happen! With two medallions in play, Whim of Volrath's buyback cost is . So you get to play it for . You target an Island, and through Orvar, the All-Form you get a copy of that island. Rinse and repeat. Infinite islands means infinite mana. Or... next turn that is, since you have to tap all those islands to pull off this trick with Whim of Volrath. Either that or manage to untap all your lands with Turnabout.

Edit: It was pointed out to us by MTG Cabal Cast that there is a good chance the Medallion spiked because of people trying to find Charlie Brown misprints. These misprints are not very easy to spot when you're not looking for it, and people may just be ordering a bunch to try to find these.

 

Whim of Volrath	CardKingdom $27.99	TCGPlayer $69.99
Sapphire Medallion	CardKingdom $39.99	TCGPlayer $92.75
Orvar, the All-Form	CardKingdom $9.99	TCGPlayer $6.94

 

#3 Elvish Champion $25 (+354.55%)

 

Elves have always been a thing and will always be a thing. Many different elves are printed and you never know what new tech might see print that influences some obscure elf from an older set. But one thing seems an ironclad law: always look out for lords. That's jargon for creatures that grant your tribe +1/+1. Any tribal deck can use a good lord like Elvish Champion. Many different Elf lords have been printed, but that's a good thing when it comes to EDH. It helps you be consistent even though you have a deck with 100 one-offs.

Elvish Champion spiked because of another Kaldheim commander we've covered before: Lathril, Blade of the Elves. With its ability you don't really need to attack to kill your opponent. But what if Lathril, Blade of the Elves gets removed? In that case you have some tokens left (I hope), and probably some other elves as well. With a lord in play, you can make a formidable army out of those 1/1s.

 

Elvish Champion	CardKingdom $12.99	TCGPlayer $25.00
Lathril, Blade of the Elves	CardKingdom $3.99	TCGPlayer $3.53

 

Cheap Pickups - Special Edition

Please note: for our 'record low' we consider the price of the card over the past 7 years. Many cards have been even cheaper (a) decade(s) ago. Also note: some cards are still going down, and might be even cheaper pickups next week.

 

This week I have a special version of the Cheap Pickups for you. Most of the time we show you cards that are on record lows or falling hard in price. But since the magic markets are soaring, we don't have that many cards listed on all-time lows. So we have been trying some other types of analysis to find cards that are cheap now and might go up.

But, be advised: this way of analyzing is way more speculative than usual! What we've done this week is look at cards that have a higher market price, compared to the average. Usually, it is the other way around. The AVG price tends to be much higher. Our reasoning is as follows: if the market price surpasses the AVG price, the AVG is bound to go up.

And that's another way of defining a 'cheap pickup': cards that are possibly going to go up soon. But let me reiterate what I said above: this is speculative. We still need to see how this way of looking at card prices is holding up. AVG might go up, but market might come down as well, for example. For that reason, I've chosen cards that have an up-trending market price. We do know however, by looking at historic data, that when market surpasses average, it is an indication for an upcoming AVG uptrend, most of the times (!).

Ensnaring Bridge $22.96 - Market $2 above AVG

 

Birds of Paradise $11.27 - Market $1 above AVG

 

Kjeldoran Outpost $27.86 - Market $1.30 above AVG

 

Birds of Paradise	CardKingdom $14.99	TCGPlayer $11.27
Kjeldoran Outpost	CardKingdom $20.99	TCGPlayer $27.86
Ensnaring Bridge	CardKingdom $25.99	TCGPlayer $22.96